三维地质统计学矿产资源量估算变异函数影响因素与参数敏感性研究  

Study on the Influencing Factors and Parameter Sensitivity of Variogram in 3D Geostatistics Mineral Resource Estimation

作　　者：李晓晖[1] 江健华 马良[2] 祁轶宏 潘杨 LI Xiaohui;JIANG Jianhua;MA Liang;QI Yihong;PAN Yang(School of Resources and Environmental Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;Public Geological Survey Management Center of Anhui Province(Geological Survey and Environmental Monitoring Center of Anhui Province),Hefei 230051,China;Mineral Resources Reserves Evaluation Center of Anhui Province,Hefei 230051,China)

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学资源与环境工程学院,安徽合肥230009 [2]安徽省公益性地质调查管理中心(安徽省地质调查与环境监测中心),安徽合肥230051 [3]安徽省矿产资源储量评审中心,安徽合肥230051

出　　处：《金属矿山》2023年第10期153-161,共9页Metal Mine

基　　金：安徽省自然资源科技项目(编号:2022-k-17);国家自然科学基金项目(编号:42072321)。

摘　　要：随着数字矿山建设不断深入和三维地质信息化技术不断发展,三维地质统计学方法在矿产资源量估算领域的应用越发广泛。变异函数是三维地质统计学矿产资源量估算方法的核心,其分析过程受诸多因素影响,参数控制复杂且敏感性各异。因此,度量这些因素对实验变异函数的影响并解析理论变异函数各参数的敏感性,对于获取更为合理的理论变异函数参数、提高资源量估算精度具有重要意义。以安徽省安庆—贵池矿集区某大型铁铜矿床为例,基于数学统计方法对影响实验变异函数的诸多因素进行系统分析,并运用Sobol′敏感性分析与控制变量方法深入解析和对比了理论变异函数相关参数的敏感性。研究结果表明:(1)实验变异函数稳健性受数据分布以及滞后距影响最为强烈;(2)理论变异函数模型中块金值是最为关键的参数,对交叉验证结果影响最为显著,变程次之;(3)理论变异函数模型参数值的调整可参考交叉验证结果,但同时还需参考地质勘查手段和矿体特征等要素进行综合评判。研究成果可为三维地质统计学矿产资源量估算过程中变异函数的合理确定提供参考和依据,并为相关方法的实践应用与推广提供帮助。With the development of digital mining and the continuous advancement of 3D geological information technology,the application of 3D geostatistics methods in the field of mineral resource estimation has become increasingly widespread.The variogram,which is the core of 3D geostatistics methods for mineral resource estimation,is influenced by many factors during the analysis process.The parameters of the variogram are complex to control and have varying degrees of sensitivity.Therefore,measuring the influence of these factors on the experimental variogram and analyzing the sensitivity of the parameters of the theoretical variogram can help to obtain more reasonable theoretical variogram parameters and improve the accuracy of resource estimation.The main orebody of a large iron-copper mine in Anqing-Guichi ore-oncentration area of Anhui Province was taken as the research object.Systematic analysis of the many factors that affect the experimental variogram was carried out based on mathematical statistical methods.The sobol′method and the control variable method were used to deeply analyze and compare the sensitivity of the relevant parameters of the theoretical variogram.The results show that:①The robustness of the experimental variogram is strongly affected by the data distribution and the selection of lag distance.②The nugget is the most critical parameter in the theoretical variogram model,as it has the most significant impact on the results of cross-validation,followed by the range.③Adjusting the parameter values of the theoretical variogram model can refer to the results of cross-validation.The relevant research results provide reference and basis for the reasonable determination of the variogram in the process of 3D geological statistical mineral resource estimation,and provide assistance for the practical application and promotion of related methods.

关 键 词：变异函数 参数敏感性 三维地质统计学 克里格估值 资源量估算 

分 类 号：TD11[矿业工程—矿山地质测量]