碳减排政策、银行系统性金融风险与“双支柱”调控  

Carbon emission reduction policies, systemic financial risks of banks,and the ‘ two‑pillar’ regulation

作　　者：胡小文[1] 项后军 HU Xiaowen;XIANG Houjun(School of Economics and Management,Anhui Normal University,Wuhu Anhui 241002,China;School of Finance and Investment,Guangdong University of Finance,Guangzhou Guangdong 510521,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽师范大学经济管理学院,安徽芜湖241002 [2]广东金融学院金融与投资学院,广东广州510521

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2023年第10期146-155,共10页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“防范化解经济金融领域风险研究”(批准号:22AZD040)。

摘　　要：碳减排政策会影响经济发展路径,可能提升商业银行的金融风险。评估与防范低碳转型下的金融风险,具有重要的理论与现实意义。基于此,文中将碳减排政策和银行系统性风险内生化纳入新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型,构建包含环境政策-宏观经济-金融风险的分析框架,研究总量控制、强度标准与碳税政策对商业银行系统性风险的影响,以及“双支柱”政策的防控效果。结果显示:①影响机制方面,减排政策会抑制企业生产活动,降低企业的信贷需求;也会引起居民存款下降,减少银行的信贷供给。即同时恶化银行资产与负债,引起银行资本充足率下降,可能出现转型风险。②长期影响方面,若碳强度下降20%,减排政策会引起居民存款规模下降4.9%,企业贷款规模下降5.9%,银行资本下降17.9%,最终银行资本充足率下降11.79%;而当碳强度下降40%时,经济和金融变量的下降程度更大,呈现非线性递增变化。③短期影响方面,减排政策具有自动稳定器的作用,能降低产出、银行信贷与资本充足率等变量的波动。技术冲击下,三大减排政策的效果无明显差异;能源价格冲击下,总量和强度政策的稳定效果要显著优于碳税政策;社会福利损失分析发现,总量控制政策的效果最优、强度政策次之、碳税政策的效果最弱。④风险防控方面,盯住转型风险的货币政策与逆周期资本监管的“双支柱”政策均能有效缓解减排政策引起的银行系统性金融风险,但“双支柱”调控效果更加有效。这意味着,要从实际出发、积极稳妥推进“双碳”工作,构建以控制碳排放总量和强度为主导的“双控”低碳政策体系。同时,在“双碳”工作中必须坚持树立底线思维,预防转型风险。China’s carbon emission reduction policies can affect the path of its economic development and may increase the financial risks of commercial banks.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to evaluate and prevent financial risks in the low-carbon transition.Based on this,this paper incorporates the carbon emission reduction policies and systemic risk internalization of banks into the new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model,constructs an analytical framework including environmental policies,macroeconomics,and financial risks,studies the impact of aggregate control,intensity standards,and carbon tax policies on the systemic risks of commercial banks,and examines the regulatory effects of the‘two-pillar’policy.The results show that:①In terms of impact mechanisms,the emission reduction policies could inhibit the production activities of enterprises and reduce their credit demand.It could also cause household savings to fall,reducing the supply of credit to banks.That is,it could simultaneously lead to the deterioration of bank assets and liabilities and the decline of the bank capital adequacy ratio,which may further cause transformation risks.②In terms of long-term impact,if carbon intensity is reduced by 20%,the emission reduction policies could cause the scale of household deposits to decrease by 4.9%,the scale of corporate loans to decrease by 5.9%,the bank capital to decrease by 17.9%,and the final bank capital adequacy ratio to decrease by 11.79%.When the carbon intensity decreases by 40%,the economic and financial variables could decrease to a greater extent,showing a nonlinear increasing change.③In terms of short-term impact,emission reduction policies act as automatic stabilizers,reducing fluctuations in variables such as output,bank credit,and capital adequacy ratios.Under the impact of technology,there is no significant difference in the effect of the three major emission reduction policies.Under the impact of energy prices,the stabilizing effect of the

关 键 词：碳减排政策 金融风险 “双支柱” 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济] X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]