表外业务抑制还是加剧了商业银行股价崩盘风险?  

Does Off-Balance Sheet Business Inhibit or Aggravate the Crash Risk of Commercial Banks?

作　　者：张咏梅[1] 吴婷 赵金凯 ZHANG Yongmei;WU Ting;ZHAO Jinkai(College of Economics and Management,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao,Shandong 266590,China)

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学经济管理学院,山东青岛266590

出　　处：《山东科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第5期91-100,共10页Journal of Shandong University of Science and Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：山东省高等学校青创团队(2022RW056)。

摘　　要：以2008-2020年沪深A股上市商业银行为样本,考察表外业务对银行股价崩盘风险的影响。研究结果表明:表外业务会抑制商业银行自身的股价崩盘风险,即表外业务发展水平越高,其股价崩盘风险越小;表外业务对股价崩盘风险的影响存在异质性,中小型银行比大型银行对表外业务的反应更加敏感,抑制作用对于盈利能力强、存款质量高的银行更为显著;媒体作为外部治理力量,能够增强表外业务对股价崩盘风险的抑制作用。未来在银行层面,我国商业银行应在保持自身业务的基础上突破传统业务的经营范围和模式,充分挖掘市场需求,发展表外业务;创新业务管理与人才培养模式,加强专业人才培养和吸收以应对表外业务的发展;结合银行异质性特征,对银行的表外业务实施差异化、针对性指导。在政府层面,我国政府要提高宏观政策的灵活性和前瞻性,充分利用政策的导向性作用,引导商业银行合理有序发展表外业务;相关监管部门要持续健全监管体系,完善内外部监管。A-share listed commercial banks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2008 to 2020 are taken as samples to investigate the impact of off-balance sheet business on the crash risk.The results show that the off-balance sheet business inhibits the crash risk of commercial banks,that is,the higher the development of off-balance sheet business,the smaller the crash risk;the impact of off-balance sheet business on the crash risk is heterogeneous.Small and medium-sized banks are more sensitive to off-balance sheet business than large banks,and the inhibitory effect is more significant for banks with strong profitability and high deposit quality;as an external regulating force,media can enhance the inhibitory effect of off-balance sheet business on the crash risk.In the future,at the commercial banks level,they should break through the scope and mode of traditional business while maintaining their own business,and fully explore the market potentials to develop off-balance sheet business.They are expected to innovate business management and talent training mode,and to strengthen professional talent training and cultivation to cope with the development of off-balance sheet business;what’s more,based on the heterogeneity of banks,differentiated and targeted guidance should be given to off-balance sheet business.At the government level,the Chinese government should take more flexible and forward looking macro policies and make full use of the guiding role of policies to guide commercial banks to develop off-balance sheet business in a reasonable and orderly manner.Relevant regulatory departments should continue to improve the regulatory system as well as internal and external supervision.

关 键 词：商业银行 表外业务 股价崩盘风险 媒体关注 

分 类 号：F832.2[经济管理—金融学]