基于DPSIR-博弈论组合赋权TOPSIS模型的河北省水资源保障度演进评价  

Evaluation on the evolution of water resources security degree in Hebei Province based on DPSIR-game theory combined weighting TOPSIS model

作　　者：任楠波 刘宏权[1] 潘增辉 柴春岭[1] 高惠嫣[1] 张西平[1] 陈任强 梁素韬[1] REN Nanbo;LIU Hongquan;PAN Zenghui;CHAI Chunling;GAO Huiyan;ZHANG Xiping;CHEN Renqiang;LIANG Sutao(College of Urban and Rural Construction,Hebei Agricultural University,Baoding 071001,China)

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学城乡建设学院,河北保定071001

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技（中英文）》2023年第5期873-885,共13页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：河北省重点研发项目(223742205D);河北省水利科学研究院委托课题:河北省水资源安全评价体系研究、河北省水资源管理关键技术研究。

摘　　要：为对河北省水资源保障度进行客观、有效的评价,确保水资源自然循环系统在不受人们破坏或者威胁的情况下能满足国家或区域各方面发展需求的自然保障作用,基于驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应(driving-pressure-state-impact-response,DPSIR)模型初步构建水资源保障度评价体系,通过收集河北省相关数据,对初选评价指标相关性分析和筛选,确定水资源保障度评价体系,引入变异系数法和秩和比法组合赋权的TOPSIS(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution)模型,对河北省2001—2020年的水资源保障度状况开展综合评价,并对评价结果进行障碍因子诊断。结果表明:河北省在2001—2020年水资源保障度的相对贴近度从0.217增加到0.745,呈现波动式增长趋势,水资源保障度整体趋向于较高状态,这说明河北省水资源保障度状况正在逐步改善,与响应子系统中的跨流域供水占比提高密切相关;大部分年份主要障碍因子为跨流域供水占比、工业废水化学需氧量、人均GDP、生活废水化学需氧量和万元GDP用水量等5个指标。DPSIR-博弈论组合赋权TOPSIS模型对水资源保障度演进评价具有较好的客观性和适用性,对该地区经济社会和生态环境的发展具有重要意义。Hebei Province is an important ecological barrier in northern China and an important support for the coordinated development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.However,its water resources problem was prominent,the per capita possession was low,the spatial and temporal distribution was uneven,and the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources was increasing.With the continuous development of social economy,the intensity and pressure of water resources development and utilization were increasing year by year,and the problem of water ecological environment was becoming more and more serious.In order to objectively and effectively evaluate the water resources security degree of Hebei Province,ensure that the natural circulation system of water resources can meet the natural guarantee function of national or regional development needs without being destroyed or threatened by people.Based on the DPSIR model,the evaluation system of water resources security degree was preliminarily constructed.By collecting relevant data of Hebei Province,the correlation analysis and screening of the primary evaluation indexes were carried out to determine the evaluation system of water resources security degree.The TOPSIS model combined with the variation coefficient method and the rank sum ratio method was introduced to comprehensively evaluate the water resources security degree of Hebei Province from 2001 to 2020,and the evaluation results were diagnosed with obstacle factors.The results showed that the relative closeness of water resources security degree in Hebei Province increased from 0.217 to 0.745 from 2001 to 2020,from extremely low to high,and reached a medium level as a whole.From 2001 to 2007,the level of water resources security degree was grade V.From 2008 to 2010,the level of water resources security degree reached grade IV.From 2011 to 2012,the level of water resources security reached grade III.From the end of 2014,the progress has been increasing year by year,which was closely related to the increase of the

关 键 词：河北省 水资源保障度 DPSIR 组合赋权 TOPSIS模型 障碍因子 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]