前瞻性指引引入中国货币政策工具体系的模拟分析——基于有限理性预期视角  

Simulation Analysis of Introducing Forward Guidance Into China's Monetary Policy Instrument System—Based on the Perspective of Limited Rational Expectations

作　　者：莫敏 张馨月 Mo Min;Zhang Xinyue(College of ASEAN Studies,Guangxi Minzu University,Nanning 530006,China;Center of Fiscal and Financial Research,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China)

机构地区：[1]广西民族大学东盟学院,南宁530006 [2]广西大学财政金融研究中心,南宁530004

出　　处：《统计与决策》2023年第21期138-143,共6页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(22AGJ014)。

摘　　要：稳健的货币政策是新发展格局下实现中国经济高质量发展的重要基础。面对当前数量型货币政策有效性下降而价格型货币政策尚不完善的局面,为提升货币政策宏观调控的有效性,以前瞻性指引为代表的货币政策预期管理工具的引入成为重要考量。文章基于有限理性预期视角,利用DSGE模型并结合价格型与数量型货币政策规则,在不同有限理性预期以及不同提前期情况下,对中国人民银行实施前瞻性指引的有效性进行模拟验证。研究发现:增加前瞻性指引有利于货币政策实现事先调控,但是要注意实施的提前期与透明度,增加信息披露程度,积极引导主体形成相应预期,提升货币政策宏观调控的有效性。A prudent monetary policy is an important foundation for achieving high-quality economic development in China under the new development pattern.In the face of the current situation where the effectiveness of quantitative monetary policies is declining while price-based monetary policies are not yet perfect,the introduction of forward-looking guidance as a representative tool for managing monetary policy expectations has become an important consideration in order to enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic regulation of monetary policy.Based on the perspective of bounded rational expectations,this paper uses the DSGE model and combines the price and quantitative monetary policy rules to simulate and verify the effectiveness of the People's Bank of China's implementation of forward-looking guidance under different bounded rational expectations and different lead times.Research finds that increasing forward-looking guidance can be beneficial for achieving pre regulation of monetary policy,but it is necessary to pay attention to the implementation lead time and transparency,increase the degree of information disclosure,actively guide entities to form corresponding expectations,and improve the effectiveness of macroeconomic regulation of monetary policy.

关 键 词：前瞻性指引 有限理性预期 DSGE 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学]