基于动态模型的湖库水环境容量影响因素重要性解析  

Importance analysis of factors affecting the water environmental capacity of lake reservoir based on a dynamic model

作　　者：孙玉莹 陈炼钢[1] 陈少颖 徐祎凡[1] 姜克芳 金秋[1] SUN Yuying;CHEN Liangang;CHEN Shaoying;XU Yifan;JIANG Kefang;Jin Qiu(State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;Jiangsu Institute of Water Conservancy,Nanjing 210017,China;Urbanization and Urban-Rural Planning Research Center of Jiangsu,Nanjing 210000,China)

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210029 [2]江苏省水利科学研究院,江苏南京210017 [3]江苏省城镇化和城乡规划研究中心,江苏南京210000

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2023年第5期98-105,115,共9页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202000);广西重点研发计划项目(AB22080093、AB22035075);江苏省水利科技项目(2021033)。

摘　　要：湖库入库径流量、库面蒸发、大气干湿沉降、库区降水、沉降自净、水温波动、不均匀混合及库容变化等都会影响湖库水环境容量的大小,为明确各因子的定量影响,基于构建的水环境容量逐日动态计算模型,将模型考虑要素按输入特性划分为物理因子、计算参数、水库管理目标3类,与全要素考量得到的容量基准值进行对比分析。结果表明:物理因子中入库径流量与TN容量结果相关性最强,基准设计水文条件下库区降水对TN容量结果偏差值的影响最大;计算参数中水温修正系数α对TN容量的影响最大,其增大5%对应的TN容量偏差值为8.27%;水库管理目标中的水质管理目标对TN容量的影响最大,而且是所有因素中对容量影响最大的因子。定量分析的结果明确了各影响因素对容量核算结果的影响程度,可为容量核算方法的简化及精度的提高提供依据。Factors such as lake reservoir inflow runoff,reservoir surface evaporation,atmospheric dry and wet sedimentation,precipitation in the reservoir area,sedimentation self-purification,water temperature fluctuation,uneven mixing,storage capacity change,etc.will all affect the size of the water environmental capacity of the lake reservoir.To determine the quantitative impact of each factor,a daily dynamic calculation model of water environmental capacity was established for the calculation,and the factors were divided into physical factors,calculation parameters,and reservoir management objectives according to their input characteristics.Then the calculation results were compared and analyzed with the capacity benchmark value obtained from full factor analysis.The results show that among physical factors,the inflow runoff has the strongest correlation with TN capacity results and the precipitation in the reservoir area has the greatest impact on the deviation of TN capacity results under the basic design hydrological conditions.Correction factor of water temperature α in calculation parameters has the great impact on TN capacity,an increase of 5% corresponds to a bias value of 8.27% in TN capacity.Water quality management objective in reservoir management objectives has the greatest impact on TN capacity and is the most influencing factor of all factors.The quantitative analysis clarifies the influencing degree of each factor on the capacity accounting result,and provides a technical support for simplification and improvement of the capacity accounting method.

关 键 词：湖库水环境容量 动态模型 影响因子 TN容量 定量分析 大溪水库 

分 类 号：X524[环境科学与工程—环境工程]