Impacts of Climate Change on Snow Avalanche Activity Along a Transportation Corridor in the Tianshan Mountains  

作　　者：Jiansheng Hao Xueqin Zhang Peng Cui Lanhai Li Yan Wang Guotao Zhang Chaoyue Li 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China [2]China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences-Higher Education Commission of Pakistan,Islamabad 45320,Pakistan [3]State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,China [4]Ili Station for Watershed Ecosystem Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xinyuan 835800,China

出　　处：《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》2023年第4期510-522,共13页国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientifc Expedition and Research Program(STEP)(Grant nos.2019QZKK0906,2019QZKK0903);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant no.42101080);the Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by China Association for Science and Technology(CAST)(2022QNRC001)。

摘　　要：Snow avalanches can repeatedly occur along the same track under diferent snowpack and meteorological conditions during the snow season in areas of snow avalanche activity.The snowfall,air temperature,and snow cover can change dramatically in a warming climate,causing signifcant changes in the snow avalanche risk.But how the risk of snow avalanche activity during the snow season will change under a warming climate remains an open question.Based on the observed meteorological and snowpack data from 1968 to 2021 and the snow avalanche activity data during the 2011–2021 snow seasons along a transportation corridor in the central Tianshan Mountains that has a typical continental snow climate,we analyzed the temporal distribution of the snow avalanche activity and the impacts of climate change on it.The results indicate that the frequency of the snow avalanche activity is characterized by a Gaussian bimodal distribution,resulting from interactions between the snowfall,air temperature,and snowpack evolution.In addition,the active period of wet snow avalanches triggered by temperature surges and high solar radiation has gradually moved forward from the second half to the frst half of March with climate warming.The frequency and size of snowfall-triggered snow avalanches showed only a slight and insignifcant increase.These fndings are important for rationally arranging snow avalanche relief resources to improve the risk management of snow avalanche disasters,and highlight the necessity to immediately design risk mitigation strategies and disaster risk policies to improve our adaptation to climate change.

关 键 词：Climate change Continental snow climate Risk management Snow avalanches Tianshan mountains 

分 类 号：TN3[电子电信—物理电子学]