Three‑Dimensional Numerical Modeling of Ground Ice Ablation in a Retrogressive Thaw Slump and Its Hydrological Ecosystem Response on the Qinghai‑Tibet Plateau,China  

作　　者：Fujun Niu Chenglong Jiao Jing Luo Junlin He Peifeng He 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Building Science,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510641,China [2]South China Institution of Geotechnical Engineering,School of Civil Engineering and Transportation,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510641,China [3]State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China

出　　处：《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》2023年第4期566-585,共20页国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientifc Expedition and Research Program(STEP)(Grant No.2019QZKK0905);the National Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42161160328 and 42071097);the Research and Development Project of China National Railway Group Co.,Ltd.(K2022G017);the Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Modern Civil Engineering Technology(2021B1212040003);the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of Chinese Academy of Sciences(2020421).

摘　　要：Retrogressive thaw slumps(RTSs),which frequently occur in permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP),China,can cause signifcant damage to the local surface,resulting in material losses and posing a threat to infrastructure and ecosystems in the region.However,quantitative assessment of ground ice ablation and hydrological ecosystem response was limited due to a lack of understanding of the complex hydro-thermal process during RTS development.In this study,we developed a three-dimensional hydro-thermal coupled numerical model of a RTS in the permafrost terrain at the Beilu River Basin of the QTP,including ice–water phase transitions,heat exchange,mass transport,and the parameterized exchange of heat between the active layer and air.Based on the calibrated hydro-thermal model and combined with the electrical resistivity tomography survey and sample analysis results,a method for estimating the melting of ground ice was proposed.Simulation results indicate that the model efectively refects the factual hydro-thermal regime of the RTS and can evaluate the ground ice ablation and total suspended sediment variation,represented by turbidity.Between 2011 and 2021,the maximum simulated ground ice ablation was in 2016 within the slump region,amounting to a total of 492 m^(3),and it induced the reciprocal evolution,especially in the headwall of the RTS.High ponding depression water turbidity values of 28 and 49 occurred in the thawing season in 2021.The simulated ground ice ablation and turbidity events were highly correlated with climatic warming and wetting.The results ofer a valuable approach to assessing the efects of RTS on infrastructure and the environment,especially in the context of a changing climate.

关 键 词：PERMAFROST Retrogressive thaw slump Ground ice ablation Hydrological ecosystem Qinghai-Tibet Plateau 

分 类 号：P64[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]