Risk Assessment of Debris Flows Along the Karakoram Highway (Kashgar‑Khunjerab Section) in the Context of Climate Change  

作　　者：Yamei Li Qiang Zou Jiansheng Hao Lijun Su 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System,Environment and Resources(TPESER),Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China [2]Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process,Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu 610041,China [3]China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences,Islamabad 45320,Pakistan [4]Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China [5]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China

出　　处：《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》2023年第4期586-599,共14页国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）

基　　金：funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42201082);the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA20030301);the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(STEP)(Grant No.2019QZKK0902)。

摘　　要：The Karakoram highway(KKH)is renowned for its complex natural environment and geological conditions.The climate changes drastically and directly infuences the frequency and magnitude of debris fows in this region,resulting in signifcant casualties and economic losses.However,the risk assessment of debris fows along the KKH in the context of climate change has been rarely explored.Therefore,in this study we used the debris fow data,historical meteorological data and future climate prediction data to assess the debris fow risk of the study region during the baseline period(2009–2018),2025s(2021–2030),2035s(2031–2040)and 2045s(2041–2050)under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario.The results show that the risk of debris fows increases with climate change,with the highest risk level in the 2025s.Among diferent parts of this highway,the upper reaches of the Ghez River and the second half of Tashkorgan-Khunjerab are the sections with the highest risk.These fndings are helpful for debris fow prevention and can ofer coping strategies for the existing line of the KKH.They also provide some reference for the renovation,improvement,operation,and maintenance of the KKH.

关 键 词：Climate change Debris fows Karakoram highway Risk assessment 

分 类 号：K92[历史地理—人文地理学]