A Heterogeneous Sampling Strategy to Model Earthquake‑Triggered Landslides  

作　　者：Hui Yang Peijun Shi Duncan Quincey Wenwen Qi Wentao Yang 

机构地区：[1]School of Soil and Water Conservation,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China [2]State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China [3]Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China [4]Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China [5]School of Geography,University of Leeds,Leeds LS29JT,UK [6]National Institute of Natural Hazards,Beijing 100085,China [7]Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability,People’s Government of Qinghai Province and Beijing Normal University,Xining 810016,China

出　　处：《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》2023年第4期636-648,共13页国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.2021ZY46);the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientifc Expedition and Research Program(STEP,Grant No.2019QZKK0906);Wentao Yang is grateful for the scholarship from the China Scholarships Council(No.202006515016)。

摘　　要：Regional modeling of landslide hazards is an essential tool for the assessment and management of risk in mountain environments.Previous studies that have focused on modeling earthquake-triggered landslides report high prediction accuracies.However,it is common to use a validation strategy with an equal number of landslide and non-landslide samples,scattered homogeneously across the study area.Consequently,there are overestimations in the epicenter area,and the spatial pattern of modeled locations does not agree well with real events.In order to improve landslide hazard mapping,we proposed a spatially heterogeneous non-landslide sampling strategy by considering local ratios of landslide to non-landslide area.Coseismic landslides triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake on the eastern Tibetan Plateau were used as an example.To assess the performance of the new strategy,we trained two random forest models that shared the same hyperparameters.The frst was trained using samples from the new heterogeneous strategy,and the second used the traditional approach.In each case the spatial match between modeled and measured(interpreted)landslides was examined by scatterplot,with a 2 km-by-2 km fshnet.Although the traditional approach achieved higher AUC_(ROC)(0.95)accuracy than the proposed one(0.85),the coefcient of determination(R^(2))for the new strategy(0.88)was much higher than for the traditional strategy(0.55).Our results indicate that the proposed strategy outperforms the traditional one when comparing against landslide inventory data.Our work demonstrates that higher prediction accuracies in landslide hazard modeling may be deceptive,and validation of the modeled spatial pattern should be prioritized.The proposed method may also be used to improve the mapping of precipitation-induced landslides.Application of the proposed strategy could beneft precise assessment of landslide risks in mountain environments.

关 键 词：Earthquake-triggered landslides Landslide hazard modeling Machine learning Model validation Sampling strategy Tibetan Plateau 

分 类 号：F177.6[经济管理—世界经济] P315.9[天文地球—地震学]