含分布式光伏的居民台区可开放容量评估方法  

A method for evaluating the openable capacity of residential areas with distributed photovoltaics

作　　者：唐冬来 齐雪坤 宋卫平 付世峻 田攀 汪榴 潘勇 TANG Donglai;QI Xuekun;SONG Weiping;FU Shijun;TIAN Pan;WANG Liu;PAN Yong(Aostar Information Technology Co.,Ltd.,Chendu 610041,China;State Grid Information&Telecommunication Group Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100000,China)

机构地区：[1]四川中电启明星信息技术有限公司,四川成都610041 [2]国网信息通信产业集团有限公司,北京100000

出　　处：《供用电》2023年第11期10-17,共8页Distribution & Utilization

基　　金：四川省科技计划项目(2021GFW0021)。

摘　　要：针对居民台区负荷变化随机性大,可开放容量评估准确率低的问题,提出了一种含分布式光伏的居民台区可开放容量评估方法。首先,对居民台区用户负荷的用电时段、负荷大小等特征进行聚类分析,形成典型的居民台区用户负荷类型;其次,利用通信人流数据和用户负荷的时空耦合特性进行居民台区负荷预测,得到居民台区的预留容量;然后,考虑分布式能源对居民台区的影响,通过对居民台区最大供电能力分析计算居民台区的分相可开放容量;最后,通过对居民台区可开放容量的实例计算及分析,该方法居民台区平均可开放容量评估准确率为97.6%,优于二分逼近的双层混合算法。应用结果表明:该方法可提高居民台区可开放容量评估准确性,提升供电公司配电网运维管理水平。A method for evaluating the open capacity of residential areas with distributed photovoltaics is proposed to address the issue of high randomness in load changes and low accuracy in the evaluation of open capacity.Firstly,cluster analysis is conducted on the characteristics of the electricity consumption period and load size of residential area users,to form a typical type of residential area user load;Secondly,the spatiotemporal coupling characteristics of communication traffic data and user load are utilized to predict the load of residential areas,and the reserved capacity of residential areas is obtained;Then on this basis,taking into account the impact of distributed energy on residential areas,the maximum power supply capacity of residential areas is analyzed to calculate the phase separation open capacity of residential areas.Finally,through an example analysis of the open capacity of residential areas,the accuracy of this method in evaluating the average open capacity of residential areas is 97.6%,which is better than the binary approximation based double-layer hybrid algorithm.The application results show that this method can improve the accuracy of evaluating the open capacity of residential areas and enhance the operation and maintenance management level of distribution network of power supply company.

关 键 词：分布式光伏 人流数据 居民台区 时空耦合 可开放容量 时空网格聚类 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]