基于产业链分析的批发零售业同期售电量预测研究  

Research on the Prediction of Electricity Sold in the Wholesale and Retail Industry during the Same Period Based on Industry Chain Analysis

作　　者：吕龙彪 王宝 杨敏 孙露 潘文明 LV Longbiao;WANG Bao;YANG Min;SUN Lu;PAN Wenming(Economic and Technical Research Institute of State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co.,Ltd.Hefei,Anhui 230061;Beijing Jingshi Wanfang Information Technology Co.,Ltd.Beijing 100022;State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co.,Ltd.Hefei,Anhui 230061)

机构地区：[1]国网安徽省电力有限公司经济技术研究院,安徽合肥230061 [2]北京经世万方信息技术有限公司,北京100022 [3]国网安徽省电力有限公司,安徽合肥230061

出　　处：《中国商论》2023年第21期156-160,共5页China Journal of Commerce

基　　金：国网安徽省电力有限公司经济技术研究院企业研究类项目(B61209220006)。

摘　　要：作为社会化大生产的重要环节,批发零售业决定着国民经济运行的速度、质量和效益。为了探寻批发零售业产业链上下游关系,预测批发零售业的未来走势,本文以安徽省为例,基于投入产出表和同期售电量数据,以批发零售业产业链分析为基础,采用批发零售业重点上下游行业经济指标和同期售电量,并结合时差相关性分析,筛选影响批发零售业同期售电量的关键因素,构建安徽省批发零售业同期售电量组合预测模型体系,以科学精准的数据为研判经济走势提供支撑。As an important link of socialized mass production,the wholesale and retail industry determines the speed,quality and efffciency of the national economy.To explore the upstream and downstream relationships of the wholesale and retail industry chain and predict the trend of the wholesale and retail industry,this paper takes Anhui Province as an example,based on the input-output table and the data of electricity sales in the same period,and based on the analysis of the wholesale and retail industry chain,adopts the economic indicators of key upstream and downstream industries of the wholesale and retail industry and the electricity sales in the same period and combines with the analysis of the correlation of the time difference to fflter the key factors affecting the sales of electricity of the wholesale and retail industry in the same period,and constructs the Anhui Province’s wholesale and retail industry in the same period of electricity sales portfolio forecasting model system,with scientiffc and accurate data to provide support for the study of economic trends.

关 键 词：产业链 批发零售业 同期售电量 时差相关性 组合预测模型 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]