变化环境下汀江流域非一致性水文频率分析  

Hydrological Frequency Analysis of Non-stationary Time Series in the Tingjiang Basin under Changing Environment

作　　者：吕福水 LYU Fushui(Meizhou Sub-Bureau of Guangdong Hydrology Bureau,Meizhou 514000,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省水文局梅州水文分局,广东梅州514000

出　　处：《广东水利水电》2023年第10期46-50,共5页Guangdong Water Resources and Hydropower

摘　　要：受气候变化及水利工程建设影响,传统水文频率分析无法更深层次的反应河道洪水及枯水变化特征。该文以汀江流域为例,采用Mann-Kendall检测法、滑动t检验法分析溪口站年最大洪峰流量及最枯月平均流量变异情况及变化趋势。将水文变异序列进行基于趋势分析和两P-Ⅲ混合分布的非一致性水文频率计算,分析传统水文频率计算与非一致性水文频率计算之间的差异,为汀江流域防洪调度提供参考依据。结果表明:溪口站年最大洪峰流量在2001年发生突变,呈显著下降趋势,而最枯月平均流量未发生明显变异;溪口站年最大洪峰流量序列宜采用基于两P-Ⅲ混合分布非一致性水文频率计算进行修正,受棉花滩电站调蓄影响,修正后溪口站设计洪峰流量均减小。The influence of climate change and hydraulic engineering,traditional hydrological frequency analysis cannot reflect the characteristics of river flood and low water changes.This article takes the Tingjiang River Basin as an example and uses Mann Kendall detection method and sliding t-test method to analyze the variation and trend of the annual maximum flood peak flow and the average flow in the driest month at Xikou Station.Perform non consistent hydrological frequency calculation based on trend analysis and two P-III mixed distributions on hydrological variation sequences,analyze the differences between traditional hydrological frequency calculation and non consistent hydrological frequency calculation,and provide reference basis for flood control scheduling in the Tingjiang River Basin.The results show that the annual maximum peak flow of Xikou Station experienced a sudden change in 2001,showing a significant downward trend,while the average flow of the driest month did not show significant variation;The annual maximum flood peak flow sequence of Xikou Station should be corrected using non consistent hydrological frequency calculations based on two P-III mixed distributions.Due to the influence of Mianhuatan Power Station's regulation and storage,the design flood peak flow of Xikou Station has decreased after the correction.

关 键 词：非一致性 水文频率分析 混合分布 防洪调度 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]