中国海外交通基建的出口效应评估  

Evaluation of Export Effect of China's Overseas Transportation Infrastructure Construction

作　　者：叶世雄 蔡一鸣[1] YE Shixiong;CAI Yiming

机构地区：[1]华南师范大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2023年第10期104-119,M0004,共17页World Economy Studies

基　　金：广东省哲学社会科学规划2023年度学科共建项目“中国共产党世界多极化思想融入‘世界经济概论’课的学术逻辑研究”(项目编号:GD23XMK16)。

摘　　要：文章基于中国全球投资跟踪数据库,将中国企业在东道国的交通基础设施建设视为准自然实验,运用多期双重差分法考察中国交通基建项目“走出去”对中国产品出口的影响。研究发现:(1)中国海外交通基建显著提高了中国对东道国的产品出口,这一出口效应主要体现在低收入、中等收入和“一带一路”沿线国家;(2)公路建设在低收入国家产生的出口效应更大,铁路建设在中等收入国家效果更明显,高收入国家只有航空建设较为显著;(3)机制分析表明,海外交通基建的出口效应一方面来源于中国建筑材料、机电设备等基建相关产品出口,另一方面与交通基建导致的东道国经济规模扩大有关。文章结论为政府进一步引导企业开展海外交通基础设施建设提供了有益参考,也为中国坚定践行“共商共建共享”的国际交通合作理念提供了强有力的经验证据。Using the China Global Investment Tracker database,this paper conducts a time-varying difference-in-differences(DID)identification to investigate the influence of the China's overseas transportation infrastructure construction projects on the export of Chinese products,by treating the China's overseas transportation infrastructures of Chinese enterprises in the host country as a quasi-natural experiment.The findings are as follows.firstly,China's overseas transportation infrastructure construction has significantly increased China's exports to host countries,and this export effect is mainly reflected in low-income countries,middleincome countries and countries along the"Belt and Road".Secondly,the export effect of road construction is greater in low-income countries,railway construction is more obvious in middle-income countries,and only aviation construction is statistically significant in high-income countries.Thirdly,mechanism analysis shows that the export effect of overseas transportation infrastructure construction on one hand comes from the export of China's infrastructure-related products such as construction materials,mechanical and electrical equipment,on the other hand,is related to the expansion of the host country's economic aggregate caused by transportation infrastructure construction.The conclusions of this study provide useful reference for the government to further guide enterprises to carry out overseas transportation infrastructure construction,and also provide strong empirical evidence for China to firmly implement the concept of"extensive consultation,joint contribution and shared benefits"in international transport cooperation.

关 键 词：海外交通基建 出口效应 经济规模 多期双重差分 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易] F426.9[经济管理—产业经济] F125F511