基于MaxEnt模型的蒙古白丽蘑适生区预测  

Prediction of potential suitable distribution of Leucocalocybe mongolica based on MaxEnt model

作　　者：王森源 宝秋利[2] 包玉英[1] 魏杰[3] WANG Senyuan;BAO Qiuli;BAO Yuying;WEI Jie(School of Life Sciences,Inner Mongolia University,Hohhot 010018,Inner Mongolia,China;Vocational Technical College,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Baotou 014109,Inner Mongolia,China;Forestry College,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot 010018,Inner Mongolia,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古大学生命科学学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010018 [2]内蒙古农业大学职业技术学院,内蒙古包头014109 [3]内蒙古农业大学林学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010018

出　　处：《菌物学报》2023年第10期2141-2151,共11页Mycosystema

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(32160335);内蒙古自治区高校生物种质资源保护与利用工程研究中心(21400-222526)。

摘　　要：蒙古白丽蘑Leucocalocybe mongolica是国家重点保护珍稀濒危物种,具有重要的经济价值和生态价值,但目前还没有气候变化对蒙古白丽蘑分布格局的影响研究。本研究基于蒙古白丽蘑分布数据,采用最大熵(maximumentropy)模型研究了当前和未来条件下蒙古白丽蘑的适生分布区以及影响蒙古白丽蘑分布格局的气候因子。蒙古白丽蘑适生区预测模型的训练集和测试集的受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)值分别为0.997和0.998,模型预测结果极准确。最暖季度降水量、最冷季度降水量、温度季节性变化的标准差以及降水量变异系数是影响蒙古白丽蘑分布的主要气候因子,累计贡献率达75.2%。全球来看,当前蒙古白丽蘑的最佳适生区和高适生区主要集中在中国北方、蒙古国北部和中部以及俄罗斯与中国和蒙古国接壤的蒙古高原。在我国则分布在内蒙古、黑龙江和新疆,内蒙古是蒙古白丽蘑资源分布的核心区域,且可分为北部的呼伦贝尔草原区和南部的锡林郭勒草原区2个区域。在未来4种气候情景下,蒙古白丽蘑最佳适生区和高适生区向高纬度转移,形成我国分布面积下降而蒙古分布面积增加的格局。基于参考文献、实地调查分布点数据和筛选后的环境变量构建的蒙古白丽蘑的适生区分布特征模型可信度高,结合未来气候变化分布区预测可为蒙古白丽蘑的野生资源保护提供理论依据。Leucocalocybe mongolica is a rare and endangered species under national key protection,with significant economic and ecological values.There is no research on the impact of climate change on the distribution pattern of L.mongolica previously,however.Based on the distribution data in the literature,adaptive distribution areas under current and future conditions and the climate factors affecting the distribution pattern of L.mongolica are studied using maximum entropy model.The area under curve(AUC)values of training set and test set of the prediction model for the suitable habitat of L.mongolica were 0.997 and 0.998,respectively.The prediction results of the model are extremely accurate.The precipitation in the warmest quarter,and coldest quarter,temperature seasonality,and precipitation seasonality are the main climatic factors affecting the distribution of L.mongolica,with the cumulative contribution rate of 75.2%.Globally and currently,the most suitable and highly suitable areas for L.mongolica are mainly concentrated in Mongolian plateau consisting of northern China,northern and central Mongolia,and the border areas among Russia,China and Mongolia.In China,it is mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia,Heilongjiang,and Xinjiang.Inner Mongolia is the core area for the distribution of L.mongolica,which could be divided into two subareas:Hulunbeir grassland in the north and Xilingol grassland in the south.Under four future(2030s,2050s,2070s)climate change scenarios,the most suitable and high suitable areas of L.mongolica will shift to higher latitudes,forming the pattern of decline in China and increase in Mongolia.The distribution characteristics model of the suitable habitat of L.mongolica based on the references,field survey data,selected environmental variables,and coming future climate change scenarios,shows high reliability,providing a theoretical basis for the protection of wild resources of L.mongolica.

关 键 词：蒙古白丽蘑 濒危大型真菌 气候变化 最大熵模型 生物多样性保护 

分 类 号：S567.3[农业科学—中草药栽培]