江苏省县域碳排放时空格局及影响因素研究  

A study on the spatial-temporal pattern and influential factors of carbon emissions in different counties of Jiangsu Province

作　　者：何永杰 杨新海[1] HE Yongjie;YANG Xinhai(School of Architecture and Urban Planning,SUST,Suzhou 215011,China)

机构地区：[1]苏州科技大学建筑与城市规划学院,江苏苏州215011

出　　处：《苏州科技大学学报（工程技术版）》2023年第3期58-66,73,共10页Journal of Suzhou University of Science and Technology（Engineering and Technology Edition）

摘　　要：基于2005—2017年江苏省96个县级区域面板数据,运用空间自相关分析、时空地理加权回归模型分析江苏省县域碳排放的时空格局以及影响因素。结果表明:2005—2011年江苏省县域碳排放量增长迅速,2011年后碳排放量趋于稳定;江苏省县域碳排放呈南高北低的分布格局,在局部范围内具有较高的空间依赖格局,高-高聚集区主要分布苏南地区,低-低聚集区主要分布在苏北地区;各影响因素呈现较强的时空异质性,产业结构和能源强度是江苏省县域碳排放的主导因素,且对大部分县域具有正向促进作用,人口规模、人均GDP对碳排放也存在一定影响,城镇化率和固定资产投资对碳排放影响较弱。因此,分析江苏省县域碳排放时空格局演变特征和各因素对不同县域碳排放的影响程度,可为实现区域差异化碳减排政策提供指导。Based on the panel data of 96 counties in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2017,the spatial auto-correlation analysis and spatial-temporal geographically weighted regression model are used in this paper to analyze the spatial-temporal pattern and influential factors of carbon emissions in the counties of Jiangsu Province.The results show that from 2005 to 2011,the carbon emissions in the counties increased rapidly,and the carbon emissions tended to be stable after 2011.The distribution pattern of carbon emissions in the counties showed a south-high and north-low distribution pattern,and had a highly spatial dependence in local areas.The high-high aggregation areas were mainly distributed in southern Jiangsu,while the low-low aggregation areas were mainly distributed in northern Jiangsu.The influential factors showed the strong spatial-temporal heterogeneity.Industrial structure and energy intensity were the dominant factors affecting carbon emissions in the counties of Jiangsu Province,and had a positive promoting effect on most counties.Population size and per capita GDP also had certain impacts on carbon emissions,while urbanization rate and fixed asset investment had a weak impact on carbon emissions.Therefore,the analysis of the spatial-temporal pattern evolution characteristics of carbon emissions in the counties and the degree of influence of various factors on carbon emissions of different counties can provide guidance for implementing regional differentiated carbon reduction policies.

关 键 词：碳排放 时空格局 影响因素 江苏省 县域 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]