多因素耦合下鄱阳湖南部区域土地利用未来情景模拟  

Simulation of Future Land Use Scenarios in the Southern Part of Poyang Lake under Multifactor Coupling

作　　者：秦钰莉 QIN Yu-li(Hubei Yongyexing Appraisal Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan,Hubei 330013)

机构地区：[1]湖北永业行评估咨询有限公司,湖北武汉330013

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2023年第21期87-93,144,共8页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：以2015年土地利用现状数据为基期数据,利用逻辑斯特回归模型分析驱动因子与土地利用间的关系,通过Dyna-CLUE模型对2020年土地利用进行模拟,检验矫正影响鄱阳湖南部区域土地利用变化的影响因子,基于耕地保护、生态保护和综合保护3种情景对2025年鄱阳湖南部区域土地利用变化进行模拟预测。结果表明,Logistic回归分析方法检验分析驱动因子解释力发现,建设用地、耕地、未利用地、林草地和水域的拟合优度即ROC值均大于0.8,表明所选7种驱动因子具有较强的解释能力,可以对土地利用变化进行预测。通过Dyna-CLUE模型对2020年空间布局进行模拟预测,建设用地、水域、林草地和未利用地的Kappa系数均大于0.81,耕地的Kappa系数为0.77,总体能够达到模型预测的需求;3种情景设计模拟显示了研究区各类土地利用类型在空间布局上的竞争关系,3种情景预测结果显示,各类土地利用类型的比重基本保持一致,面积有所差异。在3种情景设计预测中,综合保护情景下土地利用空间格局更趋于合理。Using the land use status data in 2015 as the base period data,the Logistic regression model was used to analyze the relationship between driving factors and land use.The Dyna-CLUE model was used to simulate land use in 2020,test and correct the influencing factors of land use change in the southern part of Poyang Lake.Based on three scenarios of farmland protection,ecological protection and comprehensive protection,the land use change in the southern part of Poyang Lake in 2025 was simulated and predicted.The results showed that the logistic regression analysis method was used to test the explanatory power of driving factors and found that the goodness of fit(ROC)values of construction land,cultivated land,unused land,forest grassland and water area were all greater than 0.8,indicating that the selected seven driving factors had strong explain ability to predict land use change.The spatial distribution of 2020 was predicted by Dyna-CLUE model.The Kappa coefficient of construction land,water area,forest grassland and unused land was greater than 0.81,and the Kappa coefficient of cultivated land was 0.77,which could reach the demand of model prediction.The three scenario design simulations showed the competition relationship of various land use types in the study area in spatial layout.The results of the three scenarios showed that the proportions of various land use types were basically the same and the areas were different.The land use spatial pattern under the comprehensive protection scenario was more reasonable.

关 键 词：土地利用 驱动因子 Dyna-CLUE模型 情景模拟 鄱阳湖 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]