碳排放量、产业结构升级与环境规制的关系——基于PVAR模型实证研究  

The Relationship between Carbon Intensity,Industrial Structure Upgrading and Environmental Regulation:An empirical study based on PVAR model

作　　者：崔百灵 CUI Bailing(School of Economics and Management,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China)

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学经济管理学院,成都610500

出　　处：《科技和产业》2023年第20期86-91,共6页Science Technology and Industry

基　　金：四川省哲学社会科学规划项目(SC21B166);西南石油大学人文社科专项基金项目(2022-2023RW003)。

摘　　要：为分析碳排放量、产业结构、环境规制等方面的影响机制,选取2010—2019年度全国30个省份(因数据缺失,未包括西藏地区和港澳台地区)的样本数据,建立碳排放、产业结构、环境规制三方面的面板向量自回归模型,采用脉冲响应分析与预测方差法进行实证研究。研究显示,三者之间,两两具有双向作用,但作用大小并不相同。通过加快产业结构转型和提高环境规制力度,产业结构优化和环境保护的要求会进一步加强,碳排放量也将有效降低,另外,环境规制强度的改变也会对产业结构的改善产生影响。In order to analyze the influential mechanism of carbon intensity,industrial structure and environmental regulation,sample data from 30 pro-vinces(due to the lack of data,the statistical data mentioned here do not include the Tibet Autonomous Region,the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,the Macao Special Administrative Region and Taiwan Province)in China from 2010 to 2019 were selected to establish a panel vector autoregressive model of carbon intensity,industrial structure and environmental regulation.Impulse response analysis and prediction variance method were used for empirical research.The study has shown that the two of the three have a bilateral effect,but the degree of the effect is not the same.By accelerating the transformation of industrial structure and improving the intensity of environmental regulation,the requirements of industrial structure optimization and environmental protection will be further strengthened,and carbon intensity will be effectively reduced.In addition,changes in the intensity of environmental regulation will also have an impact on the improvement of industrial structure.

关 键 词：碳排放量 产业结构 环境规制 PVAR 

分 类 号：F124.3[经济管理—世界经济] F121.3[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X322