基于SEM-物元-云模型的地铁站运营安全评价  

Operation safety evaluation of subway stations based on SEM⁃matter element⁃cloud model

作　　者：卢毅[1] 胡琦伟 徐家瑜 LU Yi;HU Qiwei;XU Jiayu(School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Changsha University of Science&Technology,Changsha 410114,China)

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学交通运输工程学院,湖南长沙410114

出　　处：《长沙理工大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第5期171-180,共10页Journal of Changsha University of Science and Technology:Natural Science

基　　金：湖南省交通运输厅科技项目(201944)。

摘　　要：【目的】探索地铁站运营安全等级评价方法,更好地保障乘客的生命安全。【方法】从客流、设备、环境、管理4个方面,建立地铁站运营安全评价体系。首先,运用结构方程模型(structural equation model,SEM),采取问卷调查的方式对评价体系进行验证性因子分析(confirmatory factor analysis,CFA),从而计算出指标权重;然后,构建基于物元理论与云模型的地铁站运营安全评价模型,按综合关联度最大原则确定评价等级。【结果】对某地铁站进行运营安全评价,该地铁站评价等级为安全,与实际情况一致。按各影响因素的影响程度的大小从大到小依次排列为客流因素(一般危险)、管理因素(一般危险)、设备因素(安全)、环境因素(安全)。其中,指标层指标站台饱和率的关联度评价向量为(0,0,0.00042,0.11640),处于危险等级,是地铁站运营安全等级提升的关键。另外,安全制度落实性的关联度评价向量为(0,0,0.80490,0.00375),处于一般危险等级且有向危险等级发展趋势,也不容忽视。【结论】该模型能量化指标之间的相互影响,以便较好地确定指标权重,适用于解决具有模糊性与不确定性的复杂问题。[Purposes]Explore the evaluation of subway station operation safety levels to better protect the life safety of passengers.[Methods]From the perspective of passenger flow,equipment,environment and management,establish a subway station operation safety evaluation system;Firstly,the structural equation model(SEM)is used to conduct confirmatory factor analysis(CFA)on the evaluation system by means of questionnaire survey,so as to calculate the index weight.Then,a subway station operation safety evaluation model based on the combination of matter element theory and cloud model is constructed,and the evaluation level is determined according to the principle of maximum comprehensive correlation.[Findings]The evaluation level of the subway station is safety,which is consistent with the actual situation,and the influencing factors are ranked from large to small as passenger flow factors(general danger),environmental factors(safety),equipment factors(safety),and management factors(general danger).Among them,the correlation evaluation vector of the saturation rate of the index platform at the index layer is(0,0,0.00042,0.11640),which is in the danger level and is the key to improving the safety level of subway station operation.In addition,the correlation evaluation vector of the implementation of the safety system is(0,0,0.80490,0.00375),which is in the general risk level and has a trend towards the risk level,which cannot be ignored.[Conclusions]The interaction between the energy indexes of the model can better determine the index weight,which is suitable for solving the complex problems with fuzziness and uncertainty.

关 键 词：地铁站 运营安全 物元理论 云模型 关联度 

分 类 号：U291.69[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]