基于降雨情景模拟的长江中下游流域淹没风险  

Inundation Risk of Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Basin Based on Rainfall Scenario Simulation

作　　者：张洪云 王永强[2] 王大胜 王伟[3] ZHANG Hong-yun;WANG Yong-qiang;WANG Da-sheng;WANG Wei(Anhui Transport Survey and Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Hefei 230011,China;Basin Water Resource Department,Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute,Wuhan 430010,China;School of Port Coastal and Offshore Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽省交通勘察设计院有限公司,合肥230011 [2]长江科学院水资源综合利用研究所,武汉430010 [3]河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院,南京210098

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2023年第11期71-78,共8页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2021YFC3001002);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71974052);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(CKSF2019478)。

摘　　要：针对长江中下游流域洪涝灾害频发的现状,基于泰森多边形法和河网密度法分别模拟流域降雨和构建子集水区,采用SCS模型和局部等体积法模拟不同降雨重现期下的淹没水深和范围,并以市为单位进行淹没风险的具体分析。结果表明长江中下游流域产流的高值中心集中在水体和城市用地区域,受淹区主要集中在江汉、两湖平原和长江三角洲等低洼区域;随着降雨重现期的增长,遭遇积水的淹没范围越广,陆域的洪涝程度加剧。降雨量与淹没面积近似呈线性关系,当降雨量<80 mm/d,降雨量每增加1 mm,流域的淹没范围增加947 km^(2);当降雨量>80 mm/d时,淹没范围增加644 km^(2)。在以市为单位的具体分析中,武汉市、南京市、南昌市以及孝感市的淹没范围和风险均较高,因而需重点关注与防御。Given the frequent occurrence of flood disasters in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin,this study aims to assess the inundation risk in specific cities by simulating basin rainfall and sub-catchment areas using the Tyson polygon method and river network density method.The SCS(Soil Conservation Service)model and local equal volume method are employed to simulate the submerged depth and range under different rainfall return periods.The results highlight that the primary flooded areas in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are concentrated in the low-lying regions of the Jianghan Plain,the Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake Plain,as well as the Yangtze River Delta.With the increase in the return period of rainfall,the area affected by flooding and the severity of land flooding intensifies.There is an approximate linear relationship between the amount of rainfall and the area of inundation.For each 1 mm increase in precipitation,the submerged area expands by 947 km^(2) when the precipitation is below 80 mm/d and by 644 km^(2) when it exceeds 80 mm/d.A specific analysis conducted at city level reveals that Wuhan,Nanjing,Nanchang,and Xiaogan face high risks and large scopes of inundation.Consequently,these cities require heightened attention and defense measures.

关 键 词：长江中下游流域 SCS模型 局部等体积法 淹没分析 

分 类 号：P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]