马科斯执政时期(2023-2028年)的菲律宾经济:前景与挑战  

The Philippine Economy Under the Marcos Administration(2023-2028):Prospects and Challenges

作　　者： 杨超(译)[3] Maragtas SV AMANTE;Yang Chao

机构地区：[1]菲律宾人民治理赋权研究中心 [2]菲律宾大学 [3]广西社会科学院东南亚研究所

出　　处：《东南亚纵横》2023年第5期47-59,共13页Crossroads：Southeast Asian Studies

摘　　要：文章旨在通过对马科斯就任总统前后的言论、就职演讲、国情咨文以及媒体访问的报道进行分析,剖析马科斯政府的经济政策内容与趋势,分析马科斯政府任期内(2023—2028年)菲律宾经济的前景和挑战。马科斯政府的《2023—2028年菲律宾发展计划》描绘了未来六年菲律宾的发展路线图,其中包含了历任菲律宾政府经济战略中的关键要素,如贸易自由化、放松管制、减少官僚主义等,保持了经济政策的连续性。马科斯及其经济团队也在推动菲律宾国会修改1987年菲律宾宪法的经济条款以更好的发展经济。在基建方面,马科斯继续前任总统杜特尔特的“大建特建”基础设施建设项目并承诺保交付,并提出自己的“多建好建”口号。在菲中经贸关系方面,菲律宾与中国的贸易显著增长,已经超过了与美国、日本和欧洲的贸易。中国成为菲律宾投资和进出口的重要来源国。虽然有不少亮点,但农业衰退,制造业停滞不前以及服务业比重过大等菲律宾经济主要结构性弱点仍然存在,同时还面临着通货膨胀、贫困、就业,以及贸易和国际收支平衡等问题和挑战。《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)的批准可能会给菲律宾带来经济机遇,但仍需要为农业等弱势部门构建安全网。菲律宾海洋经济的潜力和能力也未能得到系统和全面的发掘。马科斯政府过多依赖“临时经济体制”,同时缺乏连贯的、可持续的经济战略和结构改革,有可能会使得菲律宾经济容易受到全球风险及不稳定因素的影响。This paper examines the outlook and challenges of the Philippine economy under the Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos administration in the term of 2023-2028,and the economic policies of the Marcos administration through the analysis of his remarks during the presidential campaign,his inaugural address,his state-of-the nation-addressand reports in the media visits.The Marcos administration's Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028,which outlines the country's development roadmap for the next six years,incorporates key elements of the economic strategies of successive Philippine governments,such as trade liberalization,deregulation,and reduction of bureaucracy,and maintains the continuity of economic policies.Marcos and his economic team are also pushing the Philippine Congress to amend the provisions related to the economy inthe 1987 Constitution of the Philippines for better economic development.In terms of infrastructure,Marcos continued former President Duterte's“big build,special build”infrastructure projects and promised to ensure delivery,and put forward his own“Build,Better,More(BBM)”slogan.In terms of Philippine-China economic and trade relations,the Philippines'trade with China has grown significantly,surpassing that with the United States,Japan and Europe.China has become an important source of investment and import and export for the Philippines.Despite a number of good performances,the main structural weaknesses of the Philippine economy,such as agricultural recession,stagnant manufacturing and a large proportion of the service industry,still exist.At the same time,it faces issues and challenges such as inflation,poverty,employment,as well as trade and international balance of payments.The ratification of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)may bring economic opportunities to the Philippines,but there is still a need to build a safety net for vulnerable sectors such as agriculture.The potential and capabilities of the Philippine marine economy have not been systematically and comprehens

关 键 词：马科斯 菲律宾经济 2023—2028年菲律宾发展计划 RCEP 

分 类 号：K341.5[历史地理—历史学] F134.1[历史地理—世界史]