县区财政可持续与政策空间的度量和实证分析——基于×省县区的调研数据  

Measurement and Empirical Study on County-district-level Fiscal Sustainability and Space:Based on the X Provincial Survey Data

作　　者：郭艳娇[1] 曲世寄 成丹[1,3] GUO Yan-jiao;QU Shi-ji;CHENG Dan

机构地区：[1]辽宁省财政科学研究所 [2]辽宁大学经济学院 [3]中国大连高级经理学院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2023年第11期30-40,共11页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“东北经济运行负向传导机理及政府策略选择研究”(项目编号:19BJY220)。

摘　　要：由于多重因素叠加,我国经济下行压力明显,各级财政也因此面临巨大压力,部分县区财政运行存在一定风险。县区是目前宏观调控的一个着力点,经济社会发展催生的新的公共服务也均需县区财政予以支持。而增强县区财政可持续、利用财政提振县区经济面临的首要问题是摸清底数,科学度量县区财政运行状况以及在正常运行之上的政策空间。笔者在现有文献研究基础上,结合实地调研情况,提出从短期现金流约束和统分结合角度衡量县区财政可持续和财政空间的必要性,详细论证分析了县区财政可持续评估体系,并以×省为例进行实证分析。结果表明,×省财政可持续性基本可控,现有财政安排对提高财政可持续性效果明显,但是部分领域财政约束力不足,财政空间有限。财政可持续和政策空间可以考虑健全县区财力长效保障机制,防止优惠政策无序竞争和赋予地方税费自主权有机结合,构建并逐步完善县区财政可持续和政策空间评估体系,以科学评估为基础进行分类施策。Due to the downward pressure on the economy,more large-scale tax and fee cuts,and uncertainties in epidemic prevention and control,there are some risks in the financial operation of some counties and districts in China.County and district are also a focus of the current macro-control and the new public services spawned by the economic and social development,which all need the support of county-district finance.The first issue to solve the problem of fiscal sustainability and the use of finance to boost the county economy is how to measure it.This paper proposes that it is necessary which the measurement should be carried out from the the aspect of short run constraints of cash flow and should combine the global features with local ones.Based on the current study and research,this paper analyzes how to establish an efficient rating system,and use the system to assess the X province county-district-level fiscal sustainability and space.The result is that:(1)the county-district-level finance is sustainable as a whole in X province,(2)the current fiscal action is effective to improve the county-district-level fiscal sustainability,(3)however,the county and district has relatively modest fiscal space in X province.In the future,further efforts should be made to improve the long-term mechanism for ensuring the financial position of counties and districts,prevent disorderly competition of preferential policies and give local governments autonomy in taxes and fees,establish and gradually improve the evaluation system of financial sustainability and space in counties and districts,and implement classified policies based on scientific evaluation.

关 键 词：县区财政 财政可持续 政策空间 度量 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]