成都市气温对手足口病发病风险的影响研究  

Study on the effect of temperature on the risk of hand,foot and mouth disease in Chengdu

作　　者：张孟媛 张瑶 魏荣杰 康殿巨[1] 秦瑶 张伦 杨长虹[1] 张华东[2] ZHANG Mengyuan;ZHANG Yao;WEI Rongjie;KANG Dianju;QIN Yao;ZHANG Lun;YANG Changhong;ZHANG Huadong(Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chengdu,Sichuan 610041,China;Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chongqing 400042,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省疾病预防控制中心,四川成都610041 [2]重庆市疾病预防控制中心,重庆400042

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2023年第6期31-34,共4页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

基　　金：2020年度川渝联合实施重点研发项目“重庆市科技局资助”(cstc2020jscx-cylhX0003)。

摘　　要：目的分析成都市气温对手足口病发病风险的影响及人群易感性。方法整理成都市2016年1月1日至2022年10月31日逐日发病数据资料和同期平均气温资料,建立分布滞后非线性模型,计算不同气温和滞后期下发病的相对危险度,分析不同人群相对危险度的差异。结果成都市研究期内共报告手足口病病例263776例,其发病具有周期性。对于总体人群而言,短期内平均气温与RR呈现“U”型关系。当滞后0~7 d,平均气温为-0.5℃,累积RR为1.59(95%CI:1.18~2.14),平均气温为34.5℃,累积RR为2.16(95%CI:1.60~2.91),但高温和低温下的RR随着滞后期的延长而减小。当滞时间延长,平均气温与RR呈现倒“U”型关系,中等气温下RR更高且随滞后期延长而增大。分组结果显示,高温和低温时散居儿童发病的RR更高。结论气温对不同人群手足口病发病的危险效应具有差异性,且随着滞后期的变化而改变,应适时针对性的调整防控措施。Objective To explore the effect of temperature on the risk of hand-foot-and-mouth disease(HFMD)and population susceptibility.Methods The data of HFMD cases in Chengdu from January 1,2016 to October 31,2022 were collected,and local meteorological data during the same period were also collected.Distributional lag nonlinear models were developed.The relative risk(RR)of morbidity at different temperatures and different lags was calculated.Differences in the relative risk levels of different populations were analyzed and compared.Results A total of 263776 cases of HFMD were reported in Chengdu during the study period.The distribution of HFMD was periodic.For the overall population,the shortterm average temperature and RR showed a"U"-shaped relationship.When the lag time was 0-7 days,the cumulative RR was 1.59(95%CI:1.18-2.14)at the average temperature of-0.5℃ and 2.16(95%CI:1.60-2.91)at the average temperature of 34.5℃.The RR values under high and low temperatures decreased with increasing lag period.When the lag time was extended,the average temperature and RR showed an inverted"U"-shaped relationship,with higher RR at moderate temperatures and increasing as the lag period increased.The results of the subgroups showed that the RR of onset among scattered children was higher at high and low temperatures.Conclusion The risk effect of temperature on the onset of HFMD in different populations is variable and changes with the lag period,and the prevention and control measures should be adjusted in a timely and targeted manner.

关 键 词：手足口病 分布滞后非线性模型 气温 相对危险度 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]