2009—2020年湖北省流行性感冒时空分布特征及预测分析  

Spatial-temporal distribution characteristics and prediction of influenza in Hubei in 2009-2020

作　　者：杨萌萌 龚胜生[1] 黄淑琼[2] 霍细香[2] YANG Mengmeng;GONG Shengsheng;HUANG Shuqiong;HUO Xixiang(College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Institute of Sustainable Development,Central China Normal University,Wuhan,Hubei 430079,China;Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Wuhan,Hubei 430079,China)

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学城市与环境科学学院/可持续发展研究中心,湖北武汉430079 [2]湖北省疾病预防控制中心,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2023年第6期35-39,共5页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的探析湖北省流行性感冒(流感)流行的时空演化特征,并进行短期时间预测,为制定科学流感防控策略提供参考。方法采用时间序列分解法和地理空间分析法来分析2009—2020年流感流行的时空演化特征,长短期记忆(LSTM)神经网络模型来预测2020—2023年各月发病率。结果湖北省流感以每年冬末春初(12月~次3月)为流感高发期,近年来流感流行有加重趋势。流感流行具有显著的空间分异特征,以“A型骨架”周边县域的病情较为严重;流行重心经历自西向东、自北向南的空间演化过程。LSTM神经网络模型预测2020年1月至2023年12月流感发病率较2019年虽有所下降,但仍处于较高水平,年内以冬春季高发。结论湖北省流感流行以冬末春初为流行高发期,鄂东南地区为重点流行地区,提示应当因人、因时、因地加强宣传和防控,鼓励重点人群、重点地区提前接种流感疫苗。Objective To explore the spatial-temporal characteristics of influenza epidemic in Hubei from 2009 to 2020,and make short-term prediction to provide reference for influenza prevention and control strategies.Methods Time series seasonal decomposition model and geographic spatial analysis method were used to analyze spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of influenza prevalence in Hubei during 2009-2020.LSTM neural network model was used to predict the monthly influenza incidence from 2020 to 2023.Results Influenza was mainly prevalent in the end of winter and the beginning of spring(December to March)were periods of high influenza incidence.In recent years,the influenza pandemic has shown an increasing trend.Influenza epidemic was characterized by significant spatial differentiation,with"A-shaped point-axis structure"surrounding counties were more severe.The epidemic center of gravity experienced a spatial evolution process from west to east and from north to south.LSTM neural network model predicted that although the influenza incidence rate from January 2020 to December 2023 is lower than that in 2019,it is still at a high level,and shows a peak epidemic in winter and spring.Conclusion Influenza epidemic in Hubei is characterized by a high epidemic period in late winter and early spring,and the southeast of Hubei is the key epidemic area.It is suggested that publicity and prevention and control should be strengthened according to people,time and place,and key populations and areas should be encouraged to receive influenza vaccines in advance.

关 键 词：流感 时空分布 预测 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]