基于多因素回归分析南通地区肺结核发病预测模型构建  

Construction of a predictive model for the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Nantong based on multivariate regression

作　　者：符剑[1] 陆峰[1] 王小平[1] 张哲[1] 杨小梅[1] 张荣荣[1] FU Jian;LU Feng;WANG Xiaoping;ZHANG Zhe;YANG Xiaomei;ZHANG Rongrong(Department Chronic Disease Prevention,Nantong Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nantong,Jiangsu 226007,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省南通市疾病预防控制中心慢传科,江苏南通226007

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2023年第6期57-60,共4页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的采用多因素回归分析构建南通地区肺结核发病预测模型,为该地区结合预防工作落实提供理论支持。方法收集2010—2021年南通市登记肺结核患者37338例为观察组;选择同期体检健康人群28721例为对照组。结果2010—2021年中南通地区肺结核总共37338例,2010—2015年报告病例数均在3000例以上,2011年最多占11.09%(4142例);2016—2021年报告病例数均在3000例以下,2021年最少占4.83%(1803例),12年来病例随年份呈下降趋势;肺结核男性占70.97%(26497例),女性占29.03%(10841例),男性肺结核发病率高于女性。年龄上0~9岁发病率最低0.06%(23例),60~69岁发病率最高19.56%(7304例);logistic回归分析,男性、年龄≥60岁、职业为农民、有吸烟史是影响肺结核患者发病的危险因素(P<0.05);ROC曲线结果:构建脑通地区肺结核发病风险预测模型AUC值为0.872,预测敏感性86.32%,特异性89.21%。结论南通地区肺结核发病风险因素较多,不同因素间互相作用、影响,构建获得肺结核发病风险预测模型可较好预测临床发病,有助于指导临床诊疗。Objective To establish a prediction model for tuberculosis incidence in Nantong area by multivariate regression analysis,and to provide theoretical support for the implementation of combined prevention work in this area.Methods A total of 37338 registered patients with pulmonary tuberculosis in Nantong City from 2010 to 2021 were enrolled in the observation group.A total of 28721 healthy people who underwent physical examination during the same period were selected as the control group.Results From 2010 to 2021,there were a total of 37338 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis in central Nantong.From 2010 to 2015,more than 3000 cases were reported annually,with the largest number(4142 cases)in 2011,accounting for 11.09% of the total.The number of cases reported from 2016 to 2021 was all less than 3000,and the number of cases reported from 2021 was the least,1803 cases,accounting for 4.83% of the total.The number of cases decreased each year in the past 12 years.The incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in males was 70.97%(26497 cases)and that in females was 29.03%(10841 cases).In terms of age,the lowest incidence rate was 0.06%(23 cases)in the age group of 0-9 years old,and the highest incidence rate was 19.56%(7304 cases)in the age group of 60-69 years old.Logistics regression analysis showed that male,age≥60 years old,occupation as a farmer and smoking history were the risk factors for pulmonary tuberculosis(P<0.05).ROC curve results showed that the AUC value of the risk prediction model for pulmonary tuberculosis in the Nantong area was 0.872,with a predictive sensitivity of 86.32% and a specificity of 89.21%.Conclusion There are many risk factors for pulmonary tuberculosis in Nantong area,and different factors interact and influence each other.The construction of a risk prediction model for pulmonary tuberculosis can better predict the clinical incidence,which is helpful to guide clinical diagnosis and treatment.

关 键 词：肺结核 多因素回归分析 预测 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]