基于加权列联表分析法的安徽省巢湖市小麦赤霉病预测  

Prediction of Fusarium head blight in Chaohu City,Anhui Province based on weighted contingency table analysis

作　　者：张新[1,2] 郑思远 鞠玉亮 潘月敏 ZHANG Xin;ZHENG Siyuan;JU Yuliang;PAN Yuemin(Key Laboratory of Biology and Sustainable Management of Plant Disease and Pests of Anhui Higher Education Institutes,School of Plant Protection,Anhui Agricultural University,Hefei 230036;Agricultural Technology Extension Center of Chaohu City,Hefei 238000)

机构地区：[1]安徽农业大学植物保护学院/植物病虫害生物学与绿色防控安徽普通高校重点实验室,合肥230036 [2]巢湖市农业技术推广中心,合肥238000

出　　处：《安徽农业大学学报》2023年第5期842-846,共5页Journal of Anhui Agricultural University

基　　金：安徽省重点研究与开发计划(202104a06020007);国家重点研发计划(2017YFD0201708)共同资助。

摘　　要：为有效预防安徽省巢湖市小麦赤霉病危害,选取巢湖市2003—2019年平均相对湿度、雨湿日光系数(雨日×降雨量×平均相对湿度/日照时数)、降雨量与日照时数作为预测因子,运用加权列联表分析法,分别对2011年秸秆还田前后小麦赤霉病流行进行预测。利用该方法对2020—2021年安徽省巢湖市小麦赤霉病发生情况进行预测,模型预测结果与小麦赤霉病实际发生情况匹配度较高,准确率为100%,表明该方法可于小麦赤霉病防治适期前50~60 d(小麦返青期)对小麦赤霉病发生程度进行中长期预测。基于加权列联表分析法建立的小麦赤霉病预测方法提高了安徽省巢湖市小麦赤霉病预测的准确性,为该病害的防治提供了部分参考依据。In order to effectively prevent the damage of Fusarium head blight in Chaohu City,Anhui Province,the average relative humidity,rain humidity and solar coefficient(rainy days×rainfall×the average relative humid-ity/sunshine time),rainfall and sunshine time from 2003 to 2019 were used as predictors,and the weighted contin-gency table analysis was used to predict the epidemic of Fusarium head blight before and after straw returning in 2011.The method was used to predict the occurrence of Fusarium head blight in Chaohu City,Anhui Province from 2020 to 2021.The predicted results of the model matched the actual occurrence of Fusarium head blight with a high accuracy of 100%.This method can be used to predict the occurrence degree of Fusarium head blight 50-60 d be-fore the suitable period for control of wheat scab(wheat turning green period).The prediction method of wheat scab based on weighted contingency table analysis in this study can improve the accuracy of prediction of Fusarium head blight in Chaohu City,Anhui Province,and provide some references for the control of the disease.

关 键 词：巢湖市 小麦赤霉病 加权列联表分析法 预测预报 

分 类 号：S435.121.45[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]