成渝城市群景观生态风险与人类活动强度时空关联分析  

Spatial-temporal correlation analysis of landscape ecological risk and human activity intensity in Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration

作　　者：魏靖阳 於冉[1,2] 付丹阳 苏越 汪沁 WEI Jingyang;YU Ran;FU Danyang;SU Yue;WANG Qin(School of Economics and Management,Anhui Agricultural University,Hefei 230036;Institute of Land and Resources,Anhui Agricultural University,Hefei 230036)

机构地区：[1]安徽农业大学经济管理学院,合肥230036 [2]安徽农业大学国土资源研究所,合肥230036

出　　处：《安徽农业大学学报》2023年第5期887-896,共10页Journal of Anhui Agricultural University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42201281)资助。

摘　　要：成渝城市群承担着重要的经济发展与生态安全责任,探讨快速发展背景下景观生态风险受人类活动强度的影响效应及变动趋势,对于地区规划发展及生态治理具有重要意义。基于2000、2010和2020年三期成渝城市群土地利用遥感数据,构建景观生态风险、人类活动强度评价方法,并基于GWR模型、双变量局部空间相关性分析、耦合测度,揭示两者的时空关联特征。结果显示:(1)2000—2020年研究区ERI逐渐改善,风险呈中间高、四周低的特征,且中心城市在2020年降为低风险。(2)研究区HAI显著提高,空间分布与ERI较为统一,主要以中心城市向外辐射扩张为趋势。(3)2000—2020年间负相关系数由中心城市扩张至整个城市群中部,ERI与HAI间空间正相关性不断减弱,高-高聚集区主要集中于研究区中部城市,低-低聚集区分布在山地林区,低-高及高-低聚集区均有增加趋势;两个指标耦合协调度在20年间显著提升,研究区中部高度协调面积扩张明显。妥善治理生态风险、科学规划发展策略可将人地矛盾转为相互促进的新局面,研究结论可为地区生态风险治理、合理谋划发展提供科学参考。The Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration undertakes important responsibilities for economic de-velopment and ecological security.This study explored the impact and trends of landscape ecological risks caused by human activities under the background of rapid development,which is of great significance for regional planning and ecological governance.Based on the remote sensing data of land use in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration in 2000,2010,and 2020,this study constructed an evaluation method of landscape ecological risks and human activity intensity,and revealed their spatiotemporal correlation characteristics based on the GWR model,bivariate local spatial correlation analysis,and coupling measurement.The results showed that:(1)From 2000 to 2020,the ERI in the study area gradually improved,with the characteristics of high in the middle and low on the periphery,and the central city became a low-risk area in 2020.(2)The HAI in the study area significantly increased,and its spatial distribution was relatively consistent with ERI,mainly radiating outward from the central city.(3)From 2000 to 2020,the negative cor-relation coefficient expanded from the expansion of the central city to the middle of the entire urban agglomeration.The spatial correlation between ERI and HAI gradually weakened,and the high-high aggregation area mainly concentrated in the middle of the study area,while the low-low aggregation area was distributed in the mountainous forest area.Both the low-high and high-low aggregation areas had an increasing trend.The coupling coordination degree of the two in-dicators significantly increased in 20 years,and the highly coordinated area in the central part of the study area expand-ed significantly.Properly governing ecological risks and scientifically planning development strategies can turn the contradiction between man and land into a new situation of mutual promotion.The research conclusion can provide a scientific reference for regional ecological risk governance and rational planning and dev

关 键 词：景观生态风险 人类活动强度 时空关联 GWR模型 耦合测度 成渝城市群 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济] P901[天文地球—自然地理学]