城镇住宅区域全年逐时用电负荷模拟模型构建方法研究  

A Novel Simulation Method for Annual Hourly Electricity Load of Urban Residential District

作　　者：褚渊 王潇 方伟 王祯 徐杰彦 康旭源 燕达[2] ZHU Yuan;WANG Xiao;FANG Wei;WANG Zhen;XU Jieyan;KANG Xuyuan;YAN Da(State Grid(Beijing)Integrated Energy Planning and D&R Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100052,China;Building Energy Research Center,School of Architecture,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]国网(北京)综合能源规划设计研究院有限公司,北京100052 [2]清华大学建筑学院建筑节能研究中心,北京100084

出　　处：《建筑科学》2023年第10期262-273,共12页Building Science

基　　金：佛山-清华产学研合作协同创新专项(佛山创新专项2021THFS0201)。

摘　　要：全年逐时用电负荷的准确模拟对于可再生电力系统的设计具有关键意义。传统的用电负荷模型以单栋建筑为空间尺度,给出典型日逐时用电负荷,无法实现区域全年逐时用电负荷的动态模拟。本文提出了1种新型的全年逐时区域用电负荷建模方法,采用随机森林回归描述气温、区域特征对日总用电负荷的影响,构建逐日用电负荷模拟模型;基于两步聚类的方法,提取典型的逐时用电特征,构建逐时用电负荷模拟模型,在逐日用电负荷模拟模型的基础上模拟全年逐时用电负荷。本文以福建省厦门市93个城镇住宅区域为案例,构建用电负荷模拟模型,该模型模拟用电负荷延时曲线与实测用电负荷延时曲线的平均绝对误差变异系数为11.8%,低于2个基准模型(13.3%,25.8%)。本研究所提出的方法可用于辅助可再生蓄能系统的优化设计。The accurate simulation of annual hourly electricity load is vital for renewable energy system design.Traditional electricity load simulation model uses a single building as the space scale and generates hourly electricity load for typical days,failing to realize the dynamic simulation of the district annual hourly electricity load.In this paper,a novel method for annual hourly electricity load simulation was proposed.Random Forest was used to regress the influence of temperature and district characteristics on the daily total electricity load to construct a daily electricity load simulation model.A two-step clustering method was implemented to extract typical hourly electricity load patterns for annual hourly electricity load simulation.A electricity load simulation model was built with 93 urban residential areas of Xiamen,Fujian,as research subjects.The coefficient of variation of the mean absolute error between the duration curves of the simulated load and the measured load was 11.8%,lower than that of the two baseline models(13.3%,and 25.8%).The proposed method can help realize the optimal design of renewable energy storage systems.

关 键 词：用电负荷模拟 城镇区域 住宅建筑 非线性回归 聚类分析 

分 类 号：TU831[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程]