气候变化与人类活动影响背景下格尔木河流域雨水洪水资源化潜力分析  

The Potential Analysis of Rain-Flood Resources in the Golmud River Catchment Based on Climate Change and Human Interventions,Qaidam Basin

作　　者：韩积斌[1,2] 王建萍 易磊[1,2] 刘久波 陈富洪 HAN Ji-bin;WANG Jian-ping;YI Lei;LIU Jiu-bo;CHEN Fu-hong(Key Laboratory of Comprehensive and Highly Efficient Utilization of Salt Lake Resources,Qinghai Institute of Salt Lakes,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xining,810008,China;Qinghai Provincial Key Laboratory of Geology and Environment of Salt Lakes,Xining,810008,China;Key Laboratory of Exploration Research of Salt Lake Resources in Qaidam Basin of Qinghai Province,Qaidam Comprehensive Geological and Mineral Exploration Institute of Qinghai Province,Golmud,816099,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院青海盐湖研究所,中国科学院盐湖资源综合高效利用重点实验室,青海西宁810008 [2]青海省盐湖地质与环境重点实验室,青海西宁810008 [3]青海省柴达木综合地质矿产勘查院,青海省柴达木盆地盐湖资源勘探研究重点实验室,青海格尔木816099

出　　处：《盐湖研究》2023年第4期30-38,共9页Journal of Salt Lake Research

基　　金：青海省科技厅项目(2020-ZJ-932Q);中国科学院重点部署项目(ZDRW-ZS-2020-3);国家自然科学基金项目(42007169);青海省“高端创新培养拔尖人才”项目。

摘　　要：水资源短缺是柴达木盆地盐湖化工产业大规模生产的制约因素之一,在未来,流域雨洪资源化利用是解决盐湖化工产业水资源短缺的必要手段。通过分析了格尔木河流域典型年份生态环境、农牧业、城镇生活、盐湖化工四大产业基本需水量,结合流域未来不同气候情景模式(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP8.5)下的径流量预测结果,探讨了气候情景模式下流域雨洪资源量、雨洪资源可利用量及雨洪资源化潜力分析。结果表明,1)在未来40 a(2022—2060年)不同气候情景模式背景下,格尔木河流域雨洪资源量均值分别为10.21×10^(8)、10.56×10^(8)、11.07×10^(8)m^(3)/a,较1991—2018年多年平均径流量的增幅分别为34.87%、39.50%、49.27%。2)现状年流域雨洪资源的可利用量十分有限,但在未来三种不同气候模式下,流域雨洪资源可利用量均值分别为1.98×10^(8)、2.32×10^(8)、2.84×10^(8)m^(3)/a,分别占雨洪资源量的19.4%、22.0%、25.7%,呈显著增长趋势。3)未来在部分丰水年份(2023—2026年、2032—2035年、2041年、2051年、2053年、2056年、2058年),流域雨洪资源量完全能够保障流域生态、农牧业、城镇生活、盐湖工业、补水溶矿的需水要求,雨洪资源化潜力十分巨大,但在其他年份则需采取引水或节水措施。该成果为流域雨洪资源的利用以及水资源的优化配置提供科学依据。Water shortage is one of the constraints of large-scale production of potash industry in Qaidam Basin,and the rain-flood resource utilization of the catchment as a necessary method to solve the water shortage problem in potash industry in the future.Based on the collection and analysis of the basic water demand(“non allowed utilization”)for the ecology,agriculture and animal husbandry,urban life and potash industry in typical years,and combined with the prediction results of runoff in different climate modes in the future,this paper discusses the analysis of such as the quantity of rain-flood resources,the amount of rain-flood resources available and the potential of ranin-flood resources.The results show that in different climate modes(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP8.5),the average amount of rain-flood resources in the Golmud river catchment was is 10.21×10^(8),10.56×10^(8),11.07×10^(8)m^(3)/a,respectively,compared with the year from 1991 to 2018 average runoff increase of 34.87%,39.50%,49.27%,respectively.(2)The utilization of rain-flood resources in the current basin is very limited,but in these climate models in the future,the average utilization of rain-flood resources in the catchment is 1.98×10^(8),2.32×10^(8),2.84×10^(8)m^(3)/a,accounting for 19.4%,22.0%and 25.7%of flood resources,respectively,showing a significant increasing trend.(3)In these high flow years(2023—2026,2032—2035,2041,2051,2053,2056,2058),the amount of rain-flood resources in this river basin can fully guarantee the water demand for the ecology,agriculture and animal husbandry,urban life,potash industry,and soluble salt mineral water demand,suggesting enormous potential of the rain-flood resource in this river catchment;while it should be water diversion or water saving measures in other years.The results are helpful to provide scientific basis for the utilization of rain-flood resources and the optimal allocation of water resources in river basins.

关 键 词：雨洪资源化潜力 洪水利用 雨洪资源量预测 水资源优化配置 格尔木河流域 

分 类 号：P343[天文地球—水文科学]