2022年西北太平洋和南海台风活动特征和预报难点分析  

Analysis on the Characteristics and Forecast Difficulties of the Typhoonsover the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea in 2022

作　　者：钱奇峰 董林 许映龙 周冠博 王皘 QIAN Qifeng;DONG Lin;XU Yinglong;ZHOU Guanbo;WANG Qian(National Meteorological Centre,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2023年第10期1254-1266,共13页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFB3900405)资助。

摘　　要：利用1949—2021年中国气象局台风最佳路径资料、2022年中央气象台台风路径和强度实时业务资料、欧洲中期预报中心ERA-Interim逐6 h再分析资料等,对2022年西北太平洋和南海台风活动的主要特征进行分析。结果表明:2022年,台风活动的阶段性、群发性特征明显,生成位置偏北偏西,登陆我国的台风数量偏少、强度偏强,自2019年以来,已连续4年登陆台风个数偏少。预报误差分析表明,在台风生成初期、台风与西风带结合后转向以及多台风(低压)活动期间的路径预报误差较大。进一步分析台风暹芭、梅花和轩岚诺的预报难点,结果表明:“暹芭”北侧的大陆高压和高层急流的预报偏差是导致后期路径预报调整的主要原因;“梅花”登陆后陆上路径预报偏差主要由模式对引导气流的预报偏差所致;“轩岚诺”路径和强度变化复杂,在其快速加强和快速减弱的速率、结构变化导致的强度波动和尺度变化等方面存在预报偏差。Based on the operational real-time typhoon data of National Meteorological Centre and other sources of observations including the ERA-Interim 6 h reanalysis data from the European Centre for Me-dium-Range Weather Forecasting(ECMWF),we analyze and review the main characteristics of typhoon activities in the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea in 2022.It is found that in 2022,the characteristics of typhoon activity were obvious in stages and clusters with the genesis zones being northward and westward,and the number of typhoons landing in China was still relatively less,which is similar with the typhoon numbers since 2019.However,the typhoon intensities in 2022 were stronger than the average.The forecast error analysis shows that the track errors mainly came from the initial stage of typhoon generation,the combination of typhoon and westerlies,and the period of multiply typhoons or low pressure area activity.Further analysis of the forecast difficulties of the typhoons Chaba,Muifa and Hinnamnor reveals that the continental high and upper-level jet in the north of Chaba at the early stage of its generation was the key system leading to the long-time track adjustment of Chaba.The track errors of the Muifa after landfall were due to the deviation of the models’forecasts of the steering flows.The track and intensity of Hinnamnor were complex,and China Meteorological Administration(CMA)made forecast deviations in the rate of its rapid intensifying and weakening,intensity fluctuations because of its unexpected changes in structure and size.

关 键 词：台风 活动特征 预报难点 台风快速增强 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]