送托一定会提高女性再生育意愿吗?——来自第七次全国生育状况抽样调查的发现  

Will Subsidized Childcare Increase Women’s Fertility Intentions?Evidence from the Seventh National Survey on Births and Fertility

作　　者：史毅[1] 韩润霖 Shi Yi;Han Runlin(China Population and Development Research Center,Beijing 100081;Institute of World Economics and Politics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732)

机构地区：[1]中国人口与发展研究中心,北京100081 [2]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《浙江社会科学》2023年第11期71-81,101,157,共13页Zhejiang Social Sciences

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金规划项目“北京市普惠型托育体系构建的理论与实践研究”(21SRC022)。

摘　　要：基于第七次全国生育状况调查数据,文章使用logit回归模型和倾向值匹配法讨论了托育服务与女性再生育意愿的关系及影响机制。研究发现:第一,在以市场化托育服务为主体的环境下,接受托育服务不仅未能显著提高女性再生育意愿,反而可能产生一定的抑制作用;第二,灵活的托育服务形式对女性再生育意愿存在积极影响,接受非全日制托育服务的女性再生育意愿显著高于接受全托的女性;第三,托育服务价格均对女性再生育意愿存在显著影响,绝对价格和相对价格越高,女性再生育意愿越低;第四,在使用送托模型和近邻匹配法控制样本选择性之后,托育服务对再生育意愿的抑制效应明显下降,但主要对低收入、中高收入和高收入家庭的作用显著,对中等收入和中低收入家庭不存在显著影响。因此,本文从提高托育服务灵活性、降低托育服务成本、促进供需有效匹配和锚定政策重点人群等方面,提出了发展普惠托育服务体系、稳定和提高女性再生育意愿的政策建议。Based on the data from the Seventh National Survey on Births and Fertility,this paper examines the relationship between childcare services and women’s fertility intentions,as well as the underlying mechanisms,using logistic regression and propensity score matching.The study finds that,first,in an environment where market-oriented childcare services prevail,receiving childcare services not only fails to significantly increase women’s fertility intentions but may actually have a certain inhibitory effect.Second,flexible forms of childcare services have a positive impact on women’s fertility intentions,with women who receive part-time childcare services showing significantly higher intentions compared to those who opt for full-time care.Third,the prices of childcare services have a significant influence on women’s fertility intentions,with higher absolute and relative prices associated with lower intentions.Fourth,after controlling for sample selection using the instrumental variable and nearest neighbor matching methods,the inhibitory effect of childcare services on fertility intentions decreases significantly;however,this effect is primarily observed among low-income,middle-high-income,and high-income families,while no significant impact is found for middle-income and middle-low-income families.Therefore,this paper proposes policy recommendations for developing inclusive childcare service systems and stabilizing and increasing women’s fertility intentions,focusing on enhancing service flexibility,reducing childcare service costs,promoting effective supply-demand matching,and targeting policy interventions towards specific population groups.

关 键 词：托育服务 生育意愿 收入效应 替代效应 职育平衡 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]