Projected Regional 1.50℃and 2.00℃Warming Threshold-crossing Time Worldwide Using the CMIP6 Models  

作　　者：MENG Yali DUAN Keqin SHANG Wei SHI Peihong LI Shuangshuang CHENG Ying CHEN Rong ZHANG Zhaopeng 

机构地区：[1]School of Geography and Tourism,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi’an,710119,China

出　　处：《Chinese Geographical Science》2023年第6期1095-1108,共14页中国地理科学（英文版）

基　　金：Under the auspices of the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(STEP)(No.2019QZKK020104);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41571062,42101122);the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.2020TS100);the Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province,China(No.2023-JC-YB-259);the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2017M610622)。

摘　　要：The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2.00℃and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.50℃.However,the response of climate change to unbalanced global warming is affected by spatial and temporal sensitivities.To better understand the regional warming response to global warming at 1.50℃and 2.00℃,we detected the 1.50℃and 2.00℃warming threshold-crossing time(WTT)above pre-industrial levels globally using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)models.Our findings indicate that the 1.50℃or 2.00℃WTT differs substantially worldwide.The warming rate of land would be approximately 1.35–1.46 times that of the ocean between 60°N–60°S in 2015–2100.Consequently,the land would experience a 1.50℃(2.00℃)warming at least 10–20 yr earlier than the time when the global mean near-surface air temperature reaches 1.50℃(2.00℃)WTT.Meanwhile,the Southern Ocean between 0°and 60°S considerably slows down the global 1.50℃and 2.00℃WTT.In 2040–2060,over 98.70%(77.50%),99.70%(89.30%),99.80%(93.40%),and 100.00%(98.00%)of the land will have warmed by over 1.50℃(2.00℃)under SSP(Shared Socioeconomic Pathway)1–2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5,respectively.We conclude that regional 1.50℃(2.00℃)WTT should be fully considered,especially in vulnerable high-latitude and high-altitude regions.

关 键 词：CMIP6(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6) global warming 1.50℃warming time 2.00℃warming time regional differences 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]