中国老年人口比重对家庭储蓄率的影响——兼论储蓄动机的调节效应  被引量:8

The Impact of the Proportion of Elderly Population on Household Savings Rate in China:On the Moderating Effect of Saving Motives

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作  者:杨晓军[1] 冉旭兰 YANG Xiaojun;RAN Xulan(School of Economics,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)

机构地区:[1]中南财经政法大学经济学院,湖北武汉430073

出  处:《人口与经济》2023年第6期87-104,共18页Population & Economics

基  金:国家社会科学基金项目“城市体系视角下人口增长的协同效应与空间格局优化研究”(22BRK018)。

摘  要:在中国人口老龄化程度逐渐加深的背景下,探讨老年人口比重对家庭储蓄率的影响,尝试解释中国家庭的高储蓄现象,为政府部门制定相关的人口和社会保障政策提供建议和参考。通过引入长寿、遗赠和赡养动机拓展三期世代交叠模型,构建一个包含家庭、企业和政府效用最大化的家庭内生储蓄函数,阐述老年人口比重对储蓄率影响的内在逻辑。在此基础上,使用2010—2018年中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS)进行实证检验,并注重分析储蓄动机的调节效应。研究发现:老年人口比重会显著提高家庭储蓄率,稳健性检验和内生性检验后的结果仍然支持该结论;家庭医疗支出风险、健康和收入不确定性、社会网络对储蓄率具有显著负向影响;在城乡、区域和家庭收入层面,农村、西部和低收入家庭的老年人口比重对储蓄率具有较大影响;在储蓄动机中,长寿和遗赠动机会显著提高家庭储蓄率,而赡养动机具有抑制作用;长寿动机拥有负向调节作用,而遗赠和赡养动机的调节效应不显著。基于上述分析提出相应的政策建议:逐渐完善老年消费市场、充分释放家庭消费活力,有效利用老年人口带来的资本积累效应,重视老年人口比重对家庭储蓄率影响的城乡、区域和收入差异,充分认识储蓄动机的调节效应。In the context of the gradual deepening of China’s aging,this paper explores the impact of proportion of elderly population on household savings rate,and attempts to explain the phenomenon of high savings in Chinese households,which can provide suggestions and references for government departments to formulate relevant population and social security policies.By introducing longevity,bequest,and maintenance motives to expand the Three-Period Overlapping Generation model,an endogenous household savings function including the maximization of households,enterprises and the government utility is constructed,and the internal logic of the effect of proportion of elderly population on the saving rate is expounded.On this basis,this study empirically tests the direct impact of proportion of seniors on household savings rate and the moderating effects of saving motives by using data of the China Family Panel Studies from 2010 to 2018.The results show that:proportion of elderly population can significantly increase household savings rate,and the results of robustness and endogeneity tests still support this conclusion.The factors that have significant negative impacts on household savings rate include risk of medical expenditure,uncertainty of health and income,and social network.At the urban-rural,regional and household income levels,the proportion of the elderly population in rural,western and low-income households has a great impact on the savings rate.Among savings motives,longevity and bequest motive can significantly increase the household saving rate,while the maintenance motive has a inhibitory effect.Longevity motive has a negative moderating effect,but the moderating effect of bequest and maintenance motive is not significant.Based on the above analysis,corresponding policy suggestions are put forward.It’s suggested to gradually improve the elderly consumption market,fully release the vitality of household consumption,effectively use the capital accumulation effect brought by elderly population,pay attention t

关 键 词:老年人口比重 家庭储蓄率 世代交叠模型 储蓄动机 

分 类 号:C913.6[经济管理] F063.4[社会学]

 

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