中国碳市场与电力市场联动机制与协同效应  

Linkage Mechanism and Synergistic Effect of China’s Carbon Market and Electricity Market

作　　者：唐葆君[1] 李茹[1] 王翔宇 邹文静 许沛昀 王崇州 刘一江 霍慧娟 徐丹 TANG Baojun;LI Ru;WANG Xiangyu;ZOU Wenjing;XU Peiyun;WANG Chongzhou;LIU Yijiang;HUO Huijuan;XU Dan(Beijing Research Base for Sustainable Economic and Social Development,Beijing Key Laboratory of Energy Economy and Environmental Management,Energy and Environmental Policy Research Center,School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;State Grid Economic and Technological Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 102209,China)

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理与经济学院能源与环境政策研究中心能源经济与环境管理北京重点实验室北京经济社会可持续发展研究基地,北京100081 [2]国网经济技术研究院有限公司,北京102209

出　　处：《北京理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第6期25-33,共9页Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology：Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国网科技项目“电—碳市场联动下电网投资质效提升研究”(1400-202256459A-2-0-ZN)。

摘　　要：碳市场与电力市场联动互促发展将成为“双碳”战略下市场机制发展的重要特征。针对以往研究多聚焦于国外成熟碳电市场,对于国内碳电市场联动实证研究较少,且多关注价格关系、相关研究并不全面深入的问题,综合考虑市场的结构、运行及主体行为互动,阐述碳电市场协同互动机制,构建系统动力学模型,探索未来不同市场发展情景下的碳市场与电力市场的联动效果。研究显示,价格方面,2021—2030年碳价将经历“前期长期低位—后期快速上涨”的发展阶段,预计2030年碳价上涨至118~200元/吨;电价初期受碳成本的影响不明显,后期随着碳价走高将上涨至0.50~0.65元/千瓦时,且配额拍卖比例越高,碳成本对电价的传导作用越明显;市场结构方面,碳市场有助于优化电力市场资源配置,淘汰高碳落后机组,2030年风电和光伏发电占比可达29.23%~33.06%。The linkage and mutual development of carbon market and electricity market will become an important feature of the development of market mechanism under the“double carbon”strategy.In view of the fact that previous studies have focused on foreign mature carbon electricity markets,there are few empirical studies on the linkage of domestic carbon electricity markets,and more attention has been paid to price relations,and related research is not comprehensive and in-depth.This research comprehensively considers the interaction of market structure,operation and subject behavior,expounds the collaborative interaction mechanism of carbon electricity market,constructs a system dynamics model,and explores the linkage effect of carbon market and electricity market under different market development scenarios in the future.The research shows that in terms of price,the carbon price in 2021—2030 will experience the development stage of long-term low in the early stage and rapid rise in the later stage.It is expected that the carbon price will rise to 118~200 yuan/ton in 2030;in the early stage,the impact of carbon cost on electricity price is not obvious.In the later stage,with the increase of carbon price,it will rise to 0.50~0.65 yuan/kWh,and the higher the proportion of allowance auction,the more obvious the transmission effect of carbon cost on electricity price.In terms of market structure,the carbon market helps to optimize the allocation of resources in the electricity market and eliminate high-carbon backward units.In 2030,the proportion of wind power and photovoltaic power generation will reach 29.23%~33.06%.

关 键 词：碳市场 电力市场 系统动力学 市场行为 联动效应 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]