基于五元联系数的交通基础设施REITs项目风险评价  

Risk Evaluation of Transportation Infrastructure REITs Projects Based on Five-element Connection Number

作　　者：石振武[1] 赵雪婷 SHI Zhenwu;ZHAO Xueting(School of Civil Engineering and Transportation,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150036,China)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学土木与交通学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150036

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2023年第5期58-63,共6页Journal of Engineering Management

基　　金：黑龙江省自然科学基金优秀青年项目(YQ2020G001);黑龙江省博士后科研启动金项目(LBH-Q21054)。

摘　　要：为保证利用REITs融资的交通基础设施项目顺利进行,实现对交通基础设施REITs项目的动态分析与管理,利用文献研究法、德尔菲法识别风险因素,结合实际情况筛选出20个评价指标建立风险指标评价体系;采用层次分析法、熵权法确定指标综合权重;引入集对分析理论中的五元联系数法,建立交通基础设施REITs风险评价模型;利用偏联系数对风险发展趋势进行分析。选取具有代表性的高速公路REITs项目进行实证分析,证实了风险评价模型的可靠性与适用性。该模型使风险动、静评价结合,为交通基础设施REITs风险评价提供参考,为发行交通基础设施REITs产品提供新方向。To ensure the smooth implementation of transportation infrastructure projects financed by REITs and realize the dynamic analysis and management of transportation infrastructure REITs projects,the literature research method and the Delphi method are used to identify the risk factors.A risk index evaluation system is established by screening out 20 evaluation indexes in combination with the actual situation.The analytic hierarchy process method and the entropy weight method are used for determining the comprehensive weights of indexes.The five-element connection number of the set-pair analysis theory is introduced to establish the risk evaluation model of transportation infrastructure REITs.The risk development trend is analyzed by using partial coefficients.The representative highway REITs projects in transportation infrastructure construction are selected for empirical analysis,which proves the reliability and applicability of the risk evaluation model.This model,which integrates the dynamic and static evaluation of risk,provides a reference for the risk evaluation of transportation infrastructure REITs and provides a new direction for the issuance of transportation infrastructure REITs products.

关 键 词：交通基础设施 REITS 五元联系数 风险评价 风险态势 

分 类 号：F512[经济管理—产业经济]