社区养老服务PPP项目收益系统动力学分析  

System Dynamics Analysis of the Benefits of Community Elderly Care Service PPPProject

作　　者：陈琳[1] 宋永发[1] CHEN Lin;SONG Yongfa(Department of Construction Management,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学建设管理系,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2023年第5期64-68,共5页Journal of Engineering Management

摘　　要：社区养老服务PPP模式下,项目收益是项目各方谈判的基础。由此,以项目收益为研究对象,分析社区养老服务PPP项目的收益影响因素间的因果关系,从而构建系统动力学模型,运用模糊推理的方法对项目日间照料人数进行推理预测。并运用案例进行仿真模拟,探讨了在项目当前的收益水平下特许期、特许价格的合理决策,论述了相关因素调整对收益的影响,以期为合作各方决策及项目运营策略调整提供决策参考和支持。Community elderly care has become an essential carrier for filling the gaps in the demand for professional elderly care.Under the PPP model of community elderly care services,project benefits are the basis for cooperation among all parties involved in the project.Therefore,the study takes project revenue as the research object,analyzes the causal relationship between the influencing factors of community elderly care service PPP project revenue,constructs a system dynamics model,and uses fuzzy inference method to infer and predict the number of daytime care personnel in the project.Finally,a case is used for simulation,which discusses the reasonable decision-making of the concession period and concession price under the current income level of the project.This study also discusses the impact of the adjustment of relevant factors on the income,in order to provide decision-making reference and support for the decision-making of all partners and the adjustment of project operation strategy.

关 键 词：社区养老服务 PPP项目 系统动力学 

分 类 号：F280[经济管理—国民经济]