“双循环”视域下区域产业结构变化的内在逻辑与发展路径  

The Internal Logic and Development Path of Regional Industrial Structure Change Under the New Development Pattern of“Dual Circulation”

作　　者：吴乔一康 冯晓 Wu-Qiao Yikang;Feng Xiao

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海201804 [2]同济大学中德工程学院,上海201804

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2023年第11期1-19,共19页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

摘　　要：现今全球经济增长乏力,经贸摩擦导致对外贸易不确定性风险增加。为了适应新的经济发展要求,中央提出构建以国内大循环为主体,国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。文章以此为视角,通过资本、劳动力、消费、对外贸易和政策因素,分析我国2012—2018年间“双循环”新发展格局对区域产业结构变化的影响。分析发现,东北地区第一和第三产业仅受到国内循环的促进,第二产业仅受到国际循环的促进,而地区消费则阻碍了第二产业发展;东部地区第一产业仅受到国内循环的影响,而第二和第三产业则已完全融入“双循环”新发展格局之中;中部地区产业发展未能有效融入“双循环”新发展格局之中,仅第三产业受到资本的促进,消费和对外贸易对其产业发展没有明显的影响;西部地区产业发展已基本参与到“双循环”之中,但较弱的消费潜力对产业发展造成了阻碍。Today,with the global economy experiencing a lack of growth momentum,the economic and trade frictions have led to increasingly uncertain risks in foreign trade.To meet the new requirements of economic development,the government has implemented the new development paradigm with domestic circulation as the mainstay and domestic and international circulations reinforcing each other.Using this perspective,the article analyses the impact of China's new dual-circulation development pattern on regional industrial structure changes during 2012-2018 through capital,labour,consumption,foreign trade and policy factors.Then,this paper analysis finds that in northeast China,the domestic circulation only improves the primary and tertiary industries,international circulation only improves the secondary industry,and regional consumption hinders the development of the secondary industry.In the eastern region,the primary industry is only affected by domestic circulation,whereas the secondary and tertiary industries have been integrated into the new dual-circulation development pattern.In the central region,industrial development has not been integrated into the new dual-circulation development pattern.Only the capital promotes the tertiary industry,consumption and foreign trade have no obvious influence on industrial development.In the western region,industrial development has participated in the new dual-circulation development pattern,but the weak consumption potential is an obstacle to its industrial development.

关 键 词：“双循环” 资本 消费 对外贸易 产业结构 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]