基于随机森林算法的围绝经期综合征影响因素分析  

Influencing factors for perimenopausal syndrome based on random forest

作　　者：武颂文 石一[2] 雷静 赵巧 WU Song-wen;SHI Yi;LEI Jing;ZHAO Qiao(Department of Public Health,Xi’an Medical University,Xi’an,Shaanxi 710021,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]西安医学院公共卫生学院,陕西西安710021 [2]陕西省疾病预防控制中心 [3]西安医学院临床医学院妇产科教研室

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2023年第20期3724-3728,3741,共6页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：陕西省体育局2021年度常规项目(2021283)。

摘　　要：目的分析围绝经期综合征的影响因素,为其疾病防治提供参考。方法通过滚雪球法对陕西省468例45~60岁女性进行在线问卷调查,采用随机森林算法对围绝经期综合征影响因素的重要性进行排序并降维,将选择的变量集纳入Ordinal logistic回归分析模型,分析影响因素的方向和OR值。结果随机森林算法显示,OOB误差率最低时的变量数为5,居于前5的变量依次是体力活动水平、年龄、月经状况、自评健康状况和生育次数。Ordinal logistic回归分析显示,与低体力活动相比,中等(OR=0.251,95%CI:0.142~0.433)、高(OR=0.008,95%CI:0.004~0.016)体力活动水平;与自评健康状况不满意相比,自评健康一般(OR=0.614,95%CI:0.402~0.953)、满意(OR=0.412,95%CI:0.233~0.735),是围绝经期综合征的保护因素(P均小于0.05)。与月经状况正常相比,月经紊乱(OR=2.592,95%CI:1.611~4.203)、绝经(OR=2.573,95%CI:1.453~4.575);与生育0次相比,生育2次(OR=2.414,95%CI:1.023~5.852),是围绝经期综合征的危险因素(P均小于0.05)。结论体力活动水平、月经状况、自评健康状况和生育次数是对围绝经期综合征影响较大的4个因素。建议加大健康宣教,提高围绝经期女性自我保健意识和生活质量。Objective To analysis the influencing factors of perimenopausal syndrome in women,and providing a reference for perimenopausal syndrome intervention.Methods This was a cross-sectional Internet survey study.Using a snowball sampling method,468 women aged 45 to 60 years were recruited from Shaanxi province.The random forest method was used to sort the importance and reduce the dimension of the independent variables.The Ordinal logistic regression model was used to analyze the action direction and relative risk(OR value)of independent variables.Results The results of random forest analysis showed that the OOB estimated error rate was the lowest when the number of variables was five,followed by the physical activity level,age,menopausal status,perceived health status and parity.Ordinal logistic regression analysis showed that physical activity level and perceived health status were protective factors for perimenopausal syndrome(OR<1),menopausal status and parity were risk factors for perimenopausal syndrome(OR>1).Conclusion The four influencing factors of perimenopausal syndrome were the physical activity level,perceived health status,menopausal status and parity.It is recommended to increase the education of healthy,and strengthen the protective factors and reduce the risk factors to improve perimenopausal women’s quality of life.

关 键 词：围绝经期综合征 影响因素 随机森林 Ordinal logistic回归 

分 类 号：R173[医药卫生—妇幼卫生保健]