广西壮族自治区碳排放时空规律及达峰预测  

Temporal and spatial characteristics and peak prediction of carbon emissions in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region

作　　者：高淼 吴秀芹[1] GAO Miao;WU Xiuqin(School of Soil and Water Conservation,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing,100083,China)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学水土保持学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国岩溶》2023年第4期763-774,共12页Carsologica Sinica

基　　金：广西重点研发计划(广西岩溶生态系统碳汇功能及固碳潜力提升技术研究与示范)(桂科AB22035004)。

摘　　要：广西壮族自治区是国家重要的工业原料供应地,但工业化进程缓慢致使碳排放增长显著,为了积极响应国家减排号召,探究广西历史及未来碳排放规律,以期尽早实现碳达峰目标。由于县级碳排放数据可获取性方面的限制,研究以2003—2017年广西县级碳排放数据,进行广西碳排放量、碳排放强度及碳排放压力的时空变化分析,划分广西不同地域碳排放类型和碳排放情景,并利用可扩展的随机性环境影响模型(STIRPAT)对2022—2035年间广西各地域碳排放类型进行了不同情景下碳排放达峰预测。(1)2003—2017年间,广西碳排放总量、碳排放压力增幅明显,碳排放强度明显降低。碳排放总量变异系数总体趋势平稳,呈高强度变异。(2)依据碳排放总量、强度、压力分级组合,碳排放可分为高总量−高强度−高压力型等6种地域类型,根据广西碳排放影响因素的现状及未来发展趋势划分基准情景、节能情景等7种情景。(3)广西全域达峰预测结果显示,4种节能发展情景均能在2030年前完成达峰目标。不同地域类型达峰预测结果显示高总量−高强度−低压力型与高总量−低强度−低压力型采用节能情景可以实现达峰目标。高总量−高强度−高压力型和高总量−低强度−高压力型无法完成达峰目标。低总量−低强度−低压力型,基准情景等5种情景均能在2030年前完成达峰目标。低总量−高强度−低压力型在2018年便已实现达峰目标。研究系统分析了广西整体及内部碳排放变化,指出了可达峰的情景模式,可为广西碳排放预测,制定减排措施提供理论与技术支持。Under the background of increasing international attention to the topic of global warming,in 2020 China was committed to peaking carbon emissions by 2030 with its enhancing independent contribution and powerful policies and measures.All provinces and localities actively respond to the commitment.Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region is an important source of industrial raw materials for China,but the slow industrialization and the excessive reliance of economic growth on industrial development have led to a significant increase in carbon emissions.Therefore,the purpose of exploring the historical and future laws of carbon emissions in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous is to achieve the carbon peak goal as soon as possible.The research is based on the county-level carbon emission data of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region from 2003 to 2017,sourced from Carbon Emission Accounts and Datasets(CEADS)which has the longest time span(from 1997 to 2017),the widest coverage and the highest accuracy of China's data on county-level carbon emissions.By GIS spatial analysis method,trend analysis and analysis of exploratory spatial data,the temporal and spatial changes of three indicators—carbon emissions,carbon emission intensity and carbon emission pressure—are analyzed at provincial,municipal and county levels in Guangxi.According to the hierarchical combination of the three indicators,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region is divided into six different types of regional carbon emissions,and on this basis,seven carbon emission scenarios are simulated in terms of future population,and social and economic development.The extensible stochastic environmental impact model(STIRPAT)is used to predict the peak of carbon emissions in different scenarios for the types of regional carbon emissions in Guangxi from 2022 to 2035.(1)From 2003 to 2017,the total carbon emissions of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region increased significantly,and the carbon emissions at the city level showed a spatial pattern of Nanning City being the highest and Fangchenggang Ci

关 键 词：广西壮族自治区 县域碳排放 时空变化特征 STIRPAT模型 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]