人类活动对轨道尺度全球季风区降水影响的模拟研究  

Regulation of human activities on orbital-scale precipitation in global monsoon regions

作　　者：李新周[1] 刘晓东[1] 马红艳 LI Xinzhou;LIU Xiaodong;MA Hongyan(State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology,Institute of Earth Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xi’an 710061,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地球环境研究所黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室,西安710061

出　　处：《地球环境学报》2023年第5期557-572,共16页Journal of Earth Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41991254);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDB40030100)。

摘　　要：目前,人类活动导致的温室气体增加是全球气候变化的主要驱动因素之一,但其在轨道尺度上对未来气候影响的研究却很少。利用海-陆-气耦合模式,对早全新世(距今10 ka前)、现代和未来10ka后的气候进行了一系列敏感性数值试验,主要探讨了在轨道尺度上自然强迫和人为温室气体对全球季风区气候变化的可能影响。模拟结果表明:在自然强迫驱动下,未来10 ka后的地球气候与早全新世类似,北半球的地表温度和降水将高于工业革命前的水平,而南半球则相反。在人类活动驱动下,未来10ka后全球地表温度将显著增加,除北美季风区外,所有季风区雨季的降水都将增加。受人类活动的影响,与工业革命前相比,极端降水和大气有效降水也将增加。在自然强迫下,雨季大气有效降水的增加主要是由于动力作用引起的大气环流增强,而人类活动引起的现代和未来10 ka后大气有效降水的增加主要是由于热力作用引起的大气水汽增加所致。Background,aim,and scope At present,the increase of greenhouse gases caused by human activities is one of the main drivers of global climate change,but its impact on future climate on the orbital scale has rarely been investigated.Meanwhile,climate anomalies in global monsoon regions are related to the production activities and livelihood of more than 70%of the world’s population,and have profound social and economic impacts.This study attempts to investigate the possible impacts of natural forcing and anthropogenic greenhouse gases on climate change over global monsoon regions on the orbital scale.Materials and methods A series of numerical sensitivity experiments of climate in the Early Holocene(EH),modern day,and 10000 years in the future(TTF)were performed using an atmosphere-land-ocean coupled model.By comparing and analyzing different numerical experiments and evaluating the results using Student’s t test,the relative contributions of natural and human forcing at orbital scale to the evolution of the typical global monsoon climate were discussed.Results This study focuses on the analysis of the characteristics and formation mechanism of precipitation,surface temperature,and extreme precipitation in the global monsoon regions under different forcing factors,and explores the dual effects of natural and human activities on climate.The simulation results show that,driven by natural forcing,the Earth’s climate in the TTF will be similar to that in the EH.In the northern hemisphere(NH),surface temperature and precipitation will be higher than their pre-industrial levels,whereas the southern hemisphere(SH)will experience opposite trends.Driven by human activities,the global surface temperature will significantly increase in the TTF,and precipitation in wet season will increase in all monsoon regions,except the North American monsoon region.Affected by human activities,extreme precipitation and atmospheric effective precipitation(precipitation minus evaporation,P−E)will also increase,with reference to pre-i

关 键 词：降水 人类活动 全球季风区 数值模拟 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]