基于HVD模型的干旱风险特征分析研究——以广东省典型易旱县区为例  

An Analysis of the Drought Risk Characteristics Based on HVD Model:A Case Study of Typical Drought prone Counties in Guangdong Province

作　　者：李宁宁 赵璧奎[1,3,4] 程涛 刘霞 谭超 廖华明[1,3,4] 林浩伟 LI Ning-ning;ZHAO Bi-kui;CHENG Tao;LIU Xia;TAN Chao;LIAO Hua-ming;LIN Hao-wei(Guangdong Research Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower,Guangzhou 510635,Guangdong Province,China;Water Resources and Environment Research Center,School of Civil Engineering,Sun Yat-Sen University,Guangzhou 510275,Guangdong Province,China;National and Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of Estuary Hydropower Technology,Guangzhou 510635,Guangdong Province,China;Guangdong Water Security Collaboration Innovation Center,Guangzhou 510635,Guangdong Province,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省水利水电科学研究院,广东广州510635 [2]中山大学土木工程学院水资源与环境研究中心,广东广州510275 [3]河口水利技术国家地方联合工程实验室,广东广州510635 [4]广东省水安全科技协同创新中心,广东广州510635

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2023年第11期19-26,共8页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：省属科研机构稳定性支持专项资金院自设课题(2021L027);广东省基础与应用基础研究基金(2022A1515010898);广州市科技计划项目(202201011541)。

摘　　要：近年来,广东省多地遭遇了罕见的严重旱情,具有持续时间长、影响范围广、干旱后果严重等特点,与人们对南方丰水地区的普遍认知有所不同。为了摸清广东省的干旱成因、影响因素、干旱特征,有效识别干旱灾害防治的薄弱环节,以省内典型易旱县区——粤东潮南区和粤西徐闻县为例,基于自然灾害风险理论,构建了耦合危险性、易损性、抗旱减灾能力三要素的干旱灾害风险评估区划模型,提出了评价指标体系及综合风险指数的计算方法,采用层次分析法确定指标权重,运用自然断点法科学划分区划,并引入风险矩阵方法将干旱风险与抗旱减灾能力聚合以表征干旱灾害防治水平,对干旱灾害风险影响因子及风险等级进行定性定量评估。结果表明:在天然降雨少、经济社会用水需求大导致水资源供给不足的主要影响下,潮南区干旱灾害综合风险自西向东递增,多数镇街为中等干旱风险,徐闻县全域均为中高及以上干旱风险,西部和中部干旱灾害综合风险较高,再叠加供水工程能力、河流水系密度、抗旱投入水平不高,可确定潮南区多数镇街为中等防治区,徐闻县多为重点防治区。通过典型历史干旱事件验证了结果的合理性,并针对易旱县区抗旱薄弱环节提出了措施建议。研究成果可以为完善广东省典型易旱县区抗旱减灾体系提供技术支持。In recent years,uncommonly severe droughts have attacked many places in Guangdong Province,with long duration,wide impact and serious consequences,which is contrary to people’s general understanding of the water-rich areas in the south.In order to find out the causes,influencing factors and characteristics of drought in Guangdong Province,and effectively identify the weaknesses in drought disaster prevention and control,taking the typical drought-prone counties in Guangdong Province-Chaonan District in eastern Guangdong and Xu⁃wen County in western Guangdong Province as examples,based on the natural disaster risk theory,this paper establishes a drought disaster risk assessment zoning model,which couples the three elements of hazard,vulnerability and defense,and the evaluation index system and calculation method of comprehensive risk index are put forward.The index weight is determined by analytic hierarchy process.The natural breakpoint method is used to scientifically divide the regionalization,and the risk matrix method is introduced to aggregate the drought risk and drought defense and disaster reduction ability to represent the level of drought disaster prevention and control,and the risk influencing factors and risk levels of drought disaster are qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated.The results show that,under the main influence of less natural rainfall and large demand for economic and social water,the comprehensive risk of drought disaster in Chaonan increase from west to east,most towns and streets have moderate drought risks,while the whole area of Xuwen has medium-high and above drought risks,the comprehensive risk of drought disaster in western and central areas is high.If the water supply engineering capacity,river system density and drought-defense investment level are not high,it can be determined that most towns and streets in Chaonan are medium prevention ar⁃eas,and most towns and villages in Xuwen are key prevention areas.The rationality of the results is verified by typical historica

关 键 词：干旱 风险评估 风险指数 风险区划 易旱县 

分 类 号：TV211[水利工程—水文学及水资源] S423[农业科学—植物保护]