东江湖流域未来土地利用变化对面源污染负荷的影响评估  

An Assessment of the Impact of Future Land Use Changes on Non-point Source Pollution Loads in the Dongjiang Lake Basin

作　　者：郑昊 贺华翔[2] 李海明[1] 牛存稳[2] 王嘉浩 李昕阳 ZHENG Hao;HE Hua-xiang;LI Hai-ming;NIU Cun-wen;WANG Jia-hao;LI Xin-yang(Laboratory of Coastal Groundwater Utilization and Protection,Tianjin University of Science and Technology,Tianjin 300450,China;National Key Laboratory of Basin Water Cycle Simulation and Control,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100078,China;North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450045,Henan Province,China)

机构地区：[1]天津科技大学滨海地下水利用与保护研究室,天津300457 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环与调控国家重点实验室,北京100078 [3]华北水利水电大学,河南郑州450046

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2023年第11期69-78,共10页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目“基于流域水循环的生态流量利益相关方博弈研究”(52009140);郴州国家可持续发展议程创新示范区建设专项“郴州涉水产业发展研究”(2019sfq03)。

摘　　要：为动态解析流域未来土地利用变化对面源污染负荷的影响,本研究将PLUS土地利用预测模型和SWAT面源污染负荷模型相耦合,揭示不同土地利用变化情景下流域面源污染分布规律。以东江湖流域为研究区,通过构建SWAT面源污染模型和PLUS土地利用模型,对研究区历史系列及未来2035年不同土地利用格局下的面源污染时空演变开展模拟,评估相应情景下的面源污染负荷。结果表明:SWAT模型对于东江湖流域适用性良好,河川径流量率定期和验证期纳什效率系数分别达到0.80、0.71,氨氮和总磷率定期和验证期纳什效率系数均高于0.5。根据东江湖流域面源污染长系列模拟结果,解析了其时空演变特征和变化趋势。流域面源污染受降水、径流等自然过程和土地利用格局等因素的影响。从时间尺度上看,污染输出负荷集中在降水量较大的丰水期,年际变化表现为面源污染先增加后减少的趋势;从空间尺度上看,氨氮、总磷负荷较高集中在流域西北部和中部径流量较大以及农田较为分散的子流域。结合流域土地利用和面源污染分布格局,解析了不同类型土地利用对面源污染的影响。总磷负荷贡献程度依次为耕地>建设用地>草地>林地>未利用地。设定了历史趋势情景和国土空间规划情景下2035年土地利用格局,在此基础上完成了面源污染响应的模拟和分析。两种不同土地利用格局情景下,国土空间规划情景较历史趋势情景氨氮减少2.12 t,总磷减少54.6 t,国土空间规划情景下的土地利用更有利于东江湖流域面源污染控制。污染负荷增加是由于农田污染、建设用地的快速扩张和林地的减少导致的,而林地和耕地的限制转换对于流域的污染负荷削减具有重要作用。In order to dynamically analyze the impact of future land use change on the non-point source pollution load in the watershed,this study couples the PLUS land use prediction model with the SWAT non-point source pollution load model,so as to reveal the distribution of non-point source pollution in the watershed under different land use change scenarios.By taking the Dongjiang Lake Basin as the research area,this paper simulates and predicts the temporal and spatial evolution of non-point source pollution under different land use patterns in the historical series of the study area and in the following 2035 by building the SWAT non-point source pollution model and the PLUS land use model.The results show that the SWAT model has good applicability to the Dongjiang Lake Basin.The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency in⁃dex of the river runoff in regular and verification periods are 0.80 and 0.71.Meanwhile,the ammonia nitrogen and total phosphorus rates are higher than 0.5 in both periods.The temporal and spatial evolution characteristics,as well as changing trends,of non-point source pollution in the Dongjiang Lake Basin are studied by using long series simulation results.Non-point source pollution in the Dongjiang Lake Basin is affected by natural processes such as precipitation and runoff and land use patterns.From a time perspective,the pollution output load is con⁃centrated during the high-water period with heavy precipitation.The inter-regional change reveals a trend of non-point source pollution first increasing and then decreasing;from the perspective of spatial scale,higher loads of ammonia nitrogen and total phosphorus are concentrated in the northwestern and central sub-basins with larger runoff and scattered farmland.The impact of different types of land use on non-point source pollution is studied in conjunction with the distribution pattern of land use and non-point source pollution.The contribution degree of total phosphorus load is cultivated land>construction land>grassland>forest land>unused.The land use pa

关 键 词：SWAT模型 PLUS模型 土地利用预测 面源污染 东江湖流域 

分 类 号：X524[环境科学与工程—环境工程]