都市圈人口分布的时空演化特征及驱动因子——基于首都、上海和广州三大都市圈的实证分析  

Spatial-temporal Pattern Evolution and Driving Factors of Population Distribution in Metropolitan Area:Empirical Evidence from the Three Metropolitan Areas of Beijing,Shanghai and Guangzhou

作　　者：樊正德 易成栋[2] 吕雪征 陈增贤 FAN Zhengde;YI Chengdong;LYU Xuezheng;CHEN Zengxian

机构地区：[1]湖北经济学院经济与贸易学院,湖北武汉430205 [2]中央财经大学管理科学与工程学院,北京102206 [3]中国人民大学数学学院,北京100086 [4]湖北经济学院马克思主义学院,湖北武汉430205

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2023年第9期97-105,共9页Urban Development Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72174220);国家社科基金一般项目(21BRK026)。

摘　　要：人口的合理分布是促进人口高质量发展支撑中国式现代化的关键一步。都市圈作为区域发展的重要引擎是具有实际分析价值的空间单元。通过使用区县级的人口密度数据,展示了“五普”以来三大都市圈人口分布的时空演化特征,并借助地理探测器模型,探究了影响都市圈人口分布产生空间分异的主要驱动因子。研究结果发现:三大都市圈内常住人口密度基本符合“内密外疏”的扇形结构特征,但内外差异在缩小正逐渐走向均衡;产业结构、地理距离和房价是驱动都市圈人口分布产生空间分异的最主要因素;不同都市圈不同圈层人口分布空间分异的驱动因子作用效果不仅存在共性而且也具有影响因子数量和作用程度方面的差异性。The rational distribution of population is a key step to promote high-quality population development and support Chinese path to modernization.The metropolitan area,as an important engine of regional development,is a spatial unit with practical analytical value.The article presents the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of population distribution in the three major metropolitan areas since the Fifth National Population Census,using population density data from districts and counties.With the help of a geographic detector model,it explores the main driving factors that affect the spatial differentiation of population distribution in metropolitan areas.The research results found that:(1) the density of permanent residents in the three major metropolitan areas basically conforms to the fan-shaped structure characteristics of "dense inside and sparse outside",but the internal and external differences are narrowing and gradually moving towards balance;(2) The industrial structure,geographical distance,and housing prices are the main factors driving the spatial differentiation of population distribution in urban areas;(3) The driving factors for the spatial differentiation of population distribution in different urban areas and circles not only have commonalities,but also have differences in the number and degree of influence factors.

关 键 词：都市圈 人口分布 时空演化 地理探测器 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]