中国铜资源产业链供应链韧性评价  

Resilience evaluation of China's copper resources industrial chain and supply chain

作　　者：朱永光 张伍丰 王迪 窦世权 徐德义 ZHU Yongguang;ZHANG Wufeng;WANG Di;DOU Shiquan;XU Deyi(School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430078,China;Resources Environmental Economic Research Center,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430078,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,武汉430078 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)资源环境经济研究中心,武汉430078

出　　处：《资源科学》2023年第9期1761-1777,共17页Resources Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(21&ZD106);国家自然科学基金项目(72334001,72204235);四川矿产资源研究中心资助项目(SCKCZY2023-YB015)。

摘　　要：【目的】铜在新能源汽车、电力通讯等领域有着广泛的应用,是能源转型过程中无法替代的关键金属。中国是全球最大的铜消费国,其产业链供应链安全问题日益凸显,科学评价中国铜产业链供应链韧性具有重要意义。【方法】本文从韧性的抵御能力、恢复能力、再组织能力和更新能力4个维度出发,结合铜资源产业的特性,构建了中国铜资源产业链供应链韧性综合评价指标体系。采用经独立性调整的熵权法对2000—2021年铜资源产业链供应链韧性进行了评价,并运用指标障碍度模型和指标贡献度模型找出影响产业链供应链韧性提升的主要因素。【结果】(1)2000—2021年,中国铜资源产业链供应链韧性呈现波动上升态势,2012年之后上升趋势更加迅速;(2)抵御能力不足是导致韧性提升较慢的主要因素,而更新能力与恢复能力提升是中国铜资源产业链供应链韧性提升的主要路径;(3)抵御能力、恢复能力、再组织能力和更新能力的协调度波动上升且在2010年后促使产业链供应链韧性超过了平均水平。【结论】要继续提升更新能力与恢复能力水平,助力铜资源产学研一体化,加快科研成果转化;减少抵御能力的负面影响,甄别断链风险,加强评估预警,提高铜资源二次回收率;产业链、人才链等多链条全方位协作,为产业链供应链注入绿色动能。[Objective]Copper has a wide range of applications in new energy vehicles,electric power,communication,and other fields,and is a key metal that cannot be replaced in the process of energy transformation.China is the world's largest copper consumer and demand country,and its industrial chain and supply chain security issues are increasingly prominent,therefore it is important to scientifically evaluate the resilience of its copper resources industrial chain and supply chain.[Methods]This study constructed a comprehensive evaluation indicator system for the resilience of China's copper resources industrial chain and supply chain from four dimensions of resilience:resistance,recovery capacity,reorganization capacity,and renewal capacity,combined with the characteristics of the copper resources industry.The independence-adjusted entropy weight method was used to evaluate the resilience of the copper resources industrial chain and supply chain from 2000 to 2021,and the indicator barrier degree model and indicator contribution degree model were applied to identify the main factors that affect the improvement of resilience.[Results]The study found that:(1)From 2000 to 2021,the resilience of China's copper resources industrial chain and supply chain showed a fluctuating upward trend,which was more rapid after2012;(2)The lack of resistance was the main factor that led to the slow improvement of resilience,while the improvement of renewal capacity and recovery capacity was the main path to improving the overall resilience;(3)The coordination degree of resistance,recovery capacity,reorganization capacity,and renewal capacity fluctuated and increased after 2010,which contributed to the aboveaverage resilience of the industrial chain and supply chain.[Conclusion]China should continue to improve the level of renewal capacity and recovery capacity of the copper resources industry,facilitate the integration of industry,academia,and research,and accelerate the transformation of scientific research results;reduce the negative impa

关 键 词：铜资源 产业链供应链 韧性 指标障碍度 协调度 中国 

分 类 号：F426.32[经济管理—产业经济]