“双碳”目标下长江经济带旅游业碳排放预测、脱钩效应及驱动因素研究  

Tourism Carbon Emission Forecasting,the Decoupling Effect and Its Driving Factors in the Yangtze River Economic Belt under the“Double Carbon”Target

作　　者：贺焱 王立国[1,2] 朱海 宋薇 詹欣悦 HE Yan;WANG Liguo;ZHU Hai;SONG Wei;ZHAN Xinyue(Rural Tourism Development Research Center,School of Land Resources and Environment,Jiangxi Agricultural University,Nanchang 330045,China;Nanchang Rural Tourism Development Research Center,Nanchang 330045,China)

机构地区：[1]江西农业大学国土资源与环境学院乡村旅游发展研究中心,南昌330045 [2]南昌市乡村旅游发展研究中心,南昌330045

出　　处：《Journal of Resources and Ecology》2023年第6期1329-1343,共15页资源与生态学报（英文版）

基　　金：The Humanities and Social Sciences of Ministry of Education Planning Fund(21YJAZH085);The National Natural Science Foundation of China(42261038)。

摘　　要：文章通过建立拓展的STIRPAT模型,设置不同情景对长江经济带未来旅游业碳排放进行预测,将Tapio脱钩模型和LMDI分解法相结合,分析历史和未来时期长江经济带旅游碳排放的脱钩效应及其驱动因素。研究结果显示:2000–2019年长江经济带旅游业的碳排放量呈现持续增长态势,增幅有下降趋势,在空间上总体呈现“中部低东西高”的格局;在不同情景下,未来长江经济带旅游业碳排放量呈现出先增后减的态势,在不同时期出现峰值;历史时期长江经济带碳排放脱钩状态以弱脱钩为主,基准情景下未来旅游业碳排放脱钩未达到强脱钩状态,中等和低碳情景下于不同时期实现了强脱钩;碳排放强度是促进历史时期旅游业碳排放脱钩的主要因素,碳排放强度和投资效率是未来时期脱钩的主要驱动因素。据此,为长江经济带旅游业提出低碳发展策略。By establishing an extended STIRPAT model,different scenarios were set up to predict the future tourism carbon emissions of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The Tapio decoupling model and LMDI decomposition method were combined to analyze the decoupling effect and factors driving tourism carbon emissions in the historical and future periods of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The results show that from 2000 to 2019,the carbon emissions of tourism in the Yangtze River Economic Belt exhibited a sustained growth trend and then a downward trend,and the overall spatial pattern was‘low in the central region and high in the east and west'.In the different scenarios,the carbon emissions of tourism in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in the future show a trend of increasing at first and then decreasing,with peaks in different periods.In the historical period,the decoupling state of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt was mainly weak decoupling.Under the benchmark scenario,the decoupling of carbon emissions in the future tourism industry will not reach a strong decoupling state,while under the medium and low-carbon scenarios,strong decoupling will be achieved in different periods.Carbon emission intensity is the main factor in promoting the decoupling of tourism carbon emission in the historical period,while carbon emission intensity and investment efficiency are the main factors driving decoupling in the future.Accordingly,low-carbon development strategies are proposed for tourism in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.

关 键 词：碳排放预测 STIRPAT模型 Tapio脱钩模型 旅游业 长江经济带 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理] X322[经济管理—产业经济]