拜登政府对华技术出口管制态势解析及应对  

An Analysis of the Strategic Situation of the Biden Administration's Technology Export Controls to China and China's Countermeasures

作　　者：张潇 苏楠[2] 陈志[2] 王治喃 Zhang Xiao;Su Nan;Chen Zhi;Wang Zhinan(Postdoctoral Workstation,China Academy of Science and Technology for Development,Beijing 100038;Institute of Technology,Economy and Society for Development,China Academy of Science and Technology for Development,Beijing 100038)

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术发展战略研究院博士后工作站,北京100038 [2]中国科学技术发展战略研究院科技与经济社会发展研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《情报杂志》2023年第11期48-53,60,共7页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“全球供应链重构及中国对策研究”(编号:20AJY01)研究成果。

摘　　要：[研究目的]拜登政府执政第一个任期过半,其对华政策以“竞争”为基调已基本明晰。出口管制是美国遏制我高技术发展的重要“武器”。持续对拜登政府技术出口管制政策动态跟踪,并加强执法趋势研判,提前做好应对意义重大。[研究方法]在定性研究的基础上,该文采用文本挖掘技术对美国2021—2022年涉华出口管制典型开源文本资料进行量化分析。[研究结论]研究表明,拜登政府未来将进一步强化对华传统竞争性战略技术领域的出口管制,并将其执法实践炮制到其他关键和新兴技术领域,且将动态调整其供应链联盟形式,以优化对华多边协同管控。在经济利益和国际影响的驱动下,拜登政府预计将实施更为精细化的出口管控措施,而在非“极限竞争”地带,两国存在合作的空间。基于此,本研究提出三条应对建议。[Research purpose]The Biden administration has been in power for more than half of its first term,and its policy towards China has become clear with a"competition"tone.The Export control is an important"weapon"for the United States to curb China's high-tech development.It is of great significance to continue to track the dynamics of the Biden administration's technology export control policies,and strengthen the research and judgment of law enforcement trends.Therefore,make a good response.[Research method]This paper uses text mining technique to analyze the documents of U.S.export controls regime towards China from 2021 to 2022,with a qualitative method.[Research conclusion]The Biden administration will further strengthen export controls on China's traditional strategic technology fields,and concoct its law enforcement practices into other critical and emerging technology fields,and will dynamically adjust the form of its supply chain alliances to optimize multilateral coordinated control towards China.Driven by economic interests and international influence,the Biden administration is expected to implement more refined export control measures to China.While in non"extreme competition"areas,there is room for cooperation between the two powers.Three suggestions are put forwarded.

关 键 词：拜登政府 技术出口管制 关键和新兴技术 技术联盟 供应链 文本挖掘 

分 类 号：G350[文化科学—情报学]