印度智库对华政策认知与中国应对分析  

Indian Think Tank's Perception of China Policy and Analysis of China's Countermeasures

作　　者：王祥宇 Wang Xiangyu(School of International Relations and Public Affairs,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院,上海200433

出　　处：《情报杂志》2023年第11期86-93,共8页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“印度经济社会发展与对外政策研究”(编号:19JZD055)研究成果。

摘　　要：[研究目的]印度对华政策的相关研究汗牛充栋,但既有学术文献集中在宏观战略或分议题的零散探讨,作为日益活跃在战略界与民间的智库机构,探究其对华政策认知,有助于窥见印度对华政策的最新进展与全貌,为中国处理对印关系提供了解“他者”的窗口。[研究方法]以9家印度国内知名智库的涉华研究为样本,重点对印度对华整体战略、经济、军事、“一个中国”政策展开讨论。[研究结论]研究发现,2019年莫迪二次执政以来,印度智库界对华政策认知基本上延续了一次执政时期的制衡与竞争共识,同时仍存在政策分歧。智库专家对华政策共识集中体现在联美制华、军事冒险上,对制华手段和经贸政策持不同立场,反映出对华政策认知尚未形成十分清晰明确的图景。鉴于此,中国应理性认识印度反华战略的限度、妥善管理中印地位竞争、促进中印两国政府间形成良性的战略沟通。[Research purpose]There are a great many studies on India's China policy,but the existing academic literature focuses on macro-strategy or sub-issues.Due to think tanks that is increasingly active in the strategic circles and non-governmental organizations in India,exploring India think tanks'perceptions of China policy is helpful for further understanding the latest situations and the whole picture of India's China policy,also providing a perspective for China to understand the"other"in handling its relations with India.[Research method]Taking the China-related studies of 9 well-known Indian think tanks as samples,the discussion focuses on India's overall strategy toward China,economy,military,and"One China"policy.[Research conclusion]This article found that India think tanks'perceptions of China policy has basically inherited the consensus of balancing and competition during the Modi's first administration,while divergences on that still exist,since Modi came to power for the second time in 2019.The consensus among India think tanks'experts on China policy is concentrated on the alliance with the United States to contain China,including military adventurism.There are also diverse positions on the means of containing China and economic policies,reflecting that India think tanks'perceptions of China policy has not yet formed a very clear picture.In view of this,China should rationally understand the limits of India's anti-China strategy,properly manage the status competition between China and India,and promote the formation of benign strategic communication between the both.

关 键 词：印度智库 印度对华认知 印度对华政策 中印关系 

分 类 号：D83[政治法律—政治学] D87[政治法律—外交学]