俄乌冲突背景下国际油价高涨对我国石油安全的影响研究  

The Impact of High Oil Price on China’s Oil Security in the Context of Russia‑Ukraine Conflict

作　　者：张跃军[1,2] 张晗 ZHANG Yuejun;ZHANG Han(Business School,Hunan University,Changsha,Hunan 410082,China;Center for Resource and Environmental Management,Hunan University,Changsha,Hunan 410082,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学工商管理学院,湖南长沙410082 [2]湖南大学资源与环境管理研究中心,湖南长沙410082

出　　处：《南京航空航天大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第4期55-60,共6页Journal of Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics（Social Sciences）

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(22AZD128);国家自然科学基金项目(72243003)。

摘　　要：2022年2月24日,俄乌战争全面爆发,欧美等西方国家持续对俄罗斯石油出口实施制裁,国际原油价格随之大幅上涨,一度突破100美元/桶,并在高位持续震荡,给我国石油安全带来较大冲击。此轮油价高涨主要是由于俄乌冲突加剧了全球石油供需失衡、影响了石油供应稳定、抬升了石油期货风险溢价。未来国际油价在短期内主要呈上涨态势,但仍面临一定下行风险,中长期有望回落,但也面临较大不确定性。此轮油价高涨将推动全球能源危机,加剧我国石油供应安全风险和能源转型压力。对此,我国应充分认识供应多元化和战略转型对保障国家石油安全的重要性,不断优化石油储备体系,加速推动油气产业绿色转型和技术创新,在能源供给中寻找战略平衡点。On February 24,2022,the Russo Ukrainian war broke out in full swing,and Western countries such as Europe and America continued to impose sanctions on Russian oil exports.As a result,international crude oil prices rose significantly,exceeding$100 per barrel at one point and continuing to fluctuate at high levels,bringing a significant impact to China’s oil security.Therefore,this paper analyzes the causes of high oil prices and their future trends.It also systematically examines the impact of high oil prices on China’s oil security during the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and proposes policy suggestions.The results indicate that the high oil prices can raise the possibility of an energy crisis,and exacerbate China’s oil supply security risks and energy transition pressure.In this regard,China should fully recognize the importance of oil supply diversification and strategic transformation to national oil security,optimize national oil storage system,accelerate green transformation and technological innovation of oil supply chain,and find a strategic balance in the energy supply constantly.

关 键 词：俄乌冲突 石油安全 油价高涨 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济] F20