东道国经济政策不确定性与中国企业对外承包工程业务发展关系研究  

Research on the Relationship between the Economic Policy Uncertainty in the Host Country and the Development of Chinese Enterprises Foreign Contracted Projects

作　　者：庞超然[1] 宋恒 殷宇飞 Pang Chaoran;Song Heng;Yin Yufei

机构地区：[1]商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院 [2]中国财政科学研究院 [3]中铁建工集团发展有限公司北京会计核算中心

出　　处：《财政科学》2023年第9期27-41,共15页Fiscal Science

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金项目青年项目“全球价值链视角下北京市企业‘走出去’发展战略研究”(项目编号:16YJC059)。

摘　　要：东道国经济政策不确定性属于中国企业“走出去”面临的风险之一,近年来已引起国内外学者的重视。本文研究表明,东道国经济政策不确定性对中国企业在当地对外承包工程业务的影响存在显著的非线性“U型”曲线特征,当东道国经济政策变化在拐点值之前,挤出效应更明显,变化在拐点值之后,促进作用更明显。将东道国宏观经济趋势项和波动项作为中介变量,可以发现在发达国家市场,宏观经济趋势项与经济政策波动不确定性互补性更强;在发展中国家市场,宏观经济波动项与经济政策不确定性互补性更强。2008年全球金融危机爆发之前,波动项与经济政策不确定性互补性更强,但解释力和影响系数在逐步减少;在金融危机之后,趋势项与经济政策不确定性互补性较强,解释力和影响系数逐渐上升。The economic policy uncertainty(EPU)of the host country is one of the risks which has to be faced by Chinese enterprises when going globally,and has attracted the attention of domestical and international scholars in recent years.Research has shown that EPUhas a significant"U"curve characteristic on Chinese enterprises'overseas contracting engineering business in the local area.When the uncertainty of the host country's economic policy changes before the inflection point,the crowding out effect is more obvious,and this value has a more significant promoting effect after the inflection point value.Furthermore,by using the macroeconomic trend and volatility terms of the host country as intermediary variables,it can be found that in developed country markets,the macroeconomic trend terms and economic policy fluctuations have stronger complementarity;In developing country markets,macroeconomic fluctuations are more complementary to economic policy uncertainty.Before the global financial crisis in 2008,the complementarity between volatility and economic policy uncertainty was stronger,but the explanatory power and effective coefficient were gradually decreasing.After the financial crisis,the trend term and economic policy uncertainty have stronger complementarity,and the explanatory power and effective coefficient are increasing.

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 宏观经济趋势 宏观经济波动 对外承包工程 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]