长江流域冬油菜产量潜力及产量差分布特征  

Distribution Characteristics of Winter Canola Yield Potential and Yield Gap in the Yangtze River Basin

作　　者：赫迪 胡鹏程 王靖[3] 王良 房世波[1] He Di;Hu Pengcheng;Wang Jing;Wang Liang;Fang Shibo(State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100082,China;School of Food and Agricultural Sciences,University of Queensland,Brisbane QLD4067,Australia;College of Resource and Environmental Sciences,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China;Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Jinan 250100,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100082 [2]澳大利亚昆士兰大学农业与食品科学学院,布里斯班QLD4067 [3]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193 [4]山东省农业科学院,山东济南250100

出　　处：《山东农业科学》2023年第10期174-180,共7页Shandong Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(41905103)。

摘　　要：油菜生产对于保障我国食用油供给安全至关重要,长江流域是我国油菜的主产区,准确评估该流域油菜生产潜力及潜在产量与实际产量差异的分布特征,可以科学指导和推广油菜生产,充分利用冬季闲田,提高油菜总产量。本研究将作物生长模型APSIM和机器学习技术结合,构建了APSIM-Canola产量潜力预测模型,可以利用较少的输入变量快速准确预测出油菜的潜在产量;利用预测的潜在产量和实际的县级统计产量计算产量差,进一步分析长江流域油菜潜在产量和产量差的空间分布特征。结果表明,长江流域冬油菜潜在产量分布大致呈西南低、东北高的趋式,平均产量潜力变化范围在1 000~4 000 kg/hm^(2)之间。产量差的分布特征则与统计产量和潜在产量不同,在研究区域的东部和西部油菜产量差大多低于1 000 kg/hm^(2),而在江西、湖南大部分地区及安徽和湖北北部,产量差可达2 000 kg/hm^(2),县级统计产量仅有潜在产量的50%左右。据此,在长江流域的油菜潜在产量高值区,如江苏、安徽、湖北、重庆大部分地区和江西、湖南、贵州的北部地区,应重点推广冬油菜种植,充分利用这些地区的冬季闲田,提高油菜产量;在江西、湖南大部分地区及安徽和湖北北部等油菜产量差较高的地区,应进一步推广油菜高效种植技术,提高油菜的实际产量;而在产量差较低的地区,应考虑通过选育适宜的高产品种进一步提升产量潜力。Canola production is crucial to ensure the security of edible oil supply in China.The Yangtze River Basin is the main production area of canola in China,and accurate assessment of the distribution charac-teristics of canola yield potential and yield gap in this area can guide and promote canola production,make full use of winter fallow fields and thus increase total canola yield.In this study,through combining the crop growth model APSIM and machine learning techniques,a canola yield potential prediction model was devel-oped,which could quickly and accurately predict the potential yield of canola using fewer input variables.The gap between the yield predicted by this model and the actual county-level statistical yield was calculated,and the spatial distribution characteristics of potential yield and yield gap of canola in the Yangtze River Basin were analyzed.The results showed that the potential yield distribution of canola in the Yangtze River Basin roughly showed a pattern of low in the southwest and high in the northeast,with the average yield potential varying be-tween 1000 kg/hm^(2) and 4000 kg/hm^(2).The distribution of yield gap was different from statistical and potential yields.In the eastern and western parts of the research area,the yield gap was mostly below 1000 kg/hm^(2),while in Jiangxi,most parts of Hunan,and northern Anhui and Hubei provinces,the yield gap could reach 2000 kg/hm^(2),and the county-level statistical yield was only about 50%of the potential yield.In conclusion,where had high potential yield in the Yangtze River Basin,such as Jiangsu,Anhui,Hubei,most of Chongqing and northern areas of Jiangxi,Hunan and Guizhou provinces,should focus on promoting the plant-ing of winter canola to make full use of the winter fallow fields so as to increase the total yield.In the areas with high yield gap such as Jiangxi,most of Hunan and northern Anhui and Hubei provinces,further promo-tion of high-efficient canola management technology should be carried out to increase the actual yield.In the areas

关 键 词：冬油菜 长江流域 产量潜力 分布特征 APSIM-Canola model 机器学习 随机森林算法 

分 类 号：S634.3-39[农业科学—蔬菜学]